With all the talk about a warm up late this week beware the curse of the backdoor cold front which this time of year can haunt long island with an onshore wind. This causes everyone to the west and south to reach the 70s while everyone on Long Island sits in 40s and 50s with low clouds and patchy dense fog. More on this in a moment but first let's deal with the fact that we had a record low tied at Islip this morning when the low of 26 degrees was reached. Winter is still hanging on. Meanwhile we have a weak storm off the Southeast coast moving to the northeast and well to our south while an upper air disturbance moves across Pennsylvania. Sunshine will be fading away as the afternoon wears on. It is a cold day as temperatures are in the 40s and that is as far as we go today.
US SATELLITE
Tonight the disturbance will slowly move through and a few rain showers are likely after midnight and don't be surprised if you see some snow in the mix. Temperatures will be in the 30s. Then Tuesday we sit in cloudy skies with occasional passing showers with highs just in the low to mid 40s. Weather conditions being to improve Tuesday night and Wednesday we will see some sunshine with highs back into the 50s.
THE CURSE OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
No doubt that a warmer pattern is going to develop over the Eastern US beginning on Thursday as a weather system goes by to our north. We will clouds and sun Thursday with the chance for a late day shower with highs in the 60s. The warm days will be Friday and Saturday. Both days we will see highs in the 60s and temperatures could reach 70 degrees as long as that back door cold front to the north behaves itself. At least through Saturday morning it is to our north which puts us on the warm side. The sea breeze will likely come in during the afternoon and jackets may be required Saturday afternoon along the South Shore.
GFS SATURDAY EVENING APRIL 14, 2018
By Sunday it will be a different story as low pressure to the west on a slow moving front approaches with showers. In addition the wind will be straight south or south southeast which means temperatures only into the 50s along with wet weather arriving.
GFS FORECAST SUNDAY APRIL 16, 2018 2PM
For now it seems that back door front will behave enough that Friday and Saturday are locked for 2 days of above average temperatures. Hopefully that remains the case.
