Over the weekend, I have been having a think about my savings plans, and future. One of the main triggers for this change in direction was this post by 
I have mentioned before in a couple of posts, that from February next year, my life circumstances will be dramatically changing. I will find myself unemployed, for the first time in many many years. I'm not going into the specifics of why, beyond mentioning vaccine mandates. Enough said, you will be able to draw your own conclusions without me getting all political and controversial.
So far, I have been able to comfortably cover my wife's wage, effectively letting her leave the workforce. I have been doing this without having to dip in to my Hive, either by powering down or selling income (except for a little last week). Mostly, selling some DeFi farming rewards, and so far I've been able to preserve and continue growing my capital base. However, covering my own income as well is a whole different challenge.
My Posts recently have been very well supported, for which I am very grateful. Now, with the drastically improved price of Hive, payouts are higher than previously. As
With more HBD flowing, I see an opportunity over the next 2 months to accumulate as much as possible. Previously, I never really considered saving my HBD. 10% return is ok, better than money in the bank, but no where near what can be earned in various DeFi platforms. However, I am looking at the HBD as an ideal savings fund, and an emergency reserve for those times next year when money may run a bit tight.
So, what I'm working on now is saving every last HBD that I possibly can, over the next 9 weeks till I am most likely out of a job. In hindsight, it would have been wise to start this accumulation plan ages ago, but I had other priorities and didn't see the opportunity. Even trading Hive to HBD now feels much more attractive. I have had a couple of "punks on hive" sell on the market lately, and converting the Hive received into HBD felt like a big win. 50 Hive all of a sudden becomes over 100 HBD, which helps me boost my HBD bank savings.
The bull market is around us. If we experience a massive run up over the next few months, like the previous run, then posts payouts could get quite crazy around here. I missed the last run, on Steem, when the price ran over $6 or $7, and posts were earning crazy payouts. The platform is very different these days, but well supported posts are already seeing payouts of hundreds of Hive units or however they are calculated. All I know for sure is that the higher the Hive price goes, the more HBD can be earned through post payouts.
If I am able to save a big bank of HBD, and can manage my finances through my upcoming forced early retirement, the goal would be to minimize any withdrawals of HBD. Those funds would be there, and growing, in case of emergency. But the goal would be for that to be a last resort. The thinking here is that having joined Steem at the time just after the peak, and not having a clue what was going on in the first year or two there is something I don't plan to repeat. Now, having 3 1/2 years on the platform, I'm well aware that the good times will likely stop at some point, and the price of Hive will drop. When, I don't know, and how far, I also don't know. But HBD now could likely be converted to a lot more Hive in a bear market than it would now.
100 Hive today may be worth around 230 HBD. If Hive drops back to $0.50 next year in a severe bear market, that 230 HBD can then be swapped back to 460 Hive. If that happens, then my future Hive earning potential, and influence over the chain is significantly greater. On the flip side, if Hive maintains higher prices, and never drops back as far (if this time really is different) then the opportunity cost of saving HBD instead of Hive is not that great. Yes, some gains may be missed, but I've already got a decent amount of Hive (by my standards), and have had the reassurance of money in the bank in case of a rainy day.
Earning 10% interest is a nice little bonus for savings. Like I said, not much compared to other options, but much more than fiat in the bank. The fact it takes only 3 days to withdraw means it is reasonably available if needed in a hurry. 13 week power-down for Hive is a lot less attractive as a savings plan.
To summarize, my plan over the next few months is to save as much HBD as possible. Simple.
Thanks for reading - let me know what you think. Good plan, bad plan, other options? What do you reckon?
Cheers,
JK.
