Remember, tariffs and other disruptions in trade affect prices, but are not the root cause of inflation. Inflating the money supply is where the real problems begin, and these take times to filter through the economy because productive processes and malinvestment take time to start, and then it takes time for reality to overcome initial assumptions.

We have been seeing inverted yield curves in the bond market and reluctance to buy Treasury notes, suggesting a long-term problem with the dollar is finally being noticed by big investors and international holders of government debt. The metaphorical printing presses also went wild during COVID, creating out of thin air something like 40% of all the dollars ever created. Then those dollars are now chasing a reduced supply of goods and services thanks first to quarantine and now to tariffs.

I think assets like crypto and bullion are likely to be seen as safer havens than fiat money, stocks, and bonds, but disruptions can also force the sale of assets like them to cover losses. It's hard to forecast what will happen, but the speed of price increases suggests a bubble even in those commodities. Pullback is likely at some point. We are also seeing the real estate bubble reinflated over and over, because of that asset falls, people with that establishment mindset will see there are real problems, too. Right now, they feel comfortable because at least their house is "appreciating." If that goes away, all hell could break loose.