A satire and a satirical prediction.
Today is 2019/05/19, the Malawi tripartite elections take place in two days, where the president, parliament and Councillors will be elected for their next term. Hopefully this text will be time stamped to mark its authenticity after the elections, when the dust has settled. You heard it here first!
Here is what is going to happen: The ruling party DPP and the incumbent president will win the elections, not by a full majority, but they will receive the most votes. This is not attributed their good performance in their last term, but simply because they have access to the largest pool of resources and they are using all the tricks in the book. Unlike other parties, they have access to all the state infrastructure, to support their campaigning.
The opposition is fragmented and will not win. Second in line will be UTM, headed by Dr. Saulos Chilima. MCP will be third and 4th place will go to UDF. All opposition parties will cry foul play and demand a new election. Meanwhile the president will be sworn in and the new members of parliament get settled. After some weeks everything will return to normal and everyone will go about their lives like nothing has happened.
The EU observer mission is on the ground and their assessment of the elections will be that they were "mostly free an fair". Unless there is some very obvious anomalies and violence on the streets they have no reason to say any different. It would raise questions, create extra work for staff and ultimately sour relationships.
The BBC has been reporting through their correspondents in Malawi and it has all been very much non-sensational so far. None of the problems and real issues on the ground have been reported on. This is understandable as the local correspondents cannot afford to expose themselves too much. They would become vulnerable and Malawi is obviously not important enough for the BBC to send their own reporters.
In the days leading up the elections, politicians remember their voters. Flags, T-shirts and caps are handed out. Even Bicycles can be seen transported across the country and are making their way to key influencers. Flags, posters and banners are flying in public places. Voters are driven from one place to another. Political Rallies morph into parties, with free or subsidized drinks, food and lots of music, all in celebration of what great tings the future will bring us. This is the time when things will now really change for the better, unlike before. We just need to be voted back into power once more! Behind closed doors contracts are awarded to supporters, to finance the festivities, merchandise and hand outs. On the streets the parties continue like there is no tomorrow.
If a vote can be secured for K1000-K2000, with only 6.8 million registered voters from an estimated population of over 19 Million, the presidency and parliament can be had for about K7 Billion - an investment with a good return.
Yet, when the music stops and the party is over, life returns to the same old. Promises made are forgotten and the nation is no better off then before. Elected officials will start replenishing their coffers, the funds invested in campaigning.
Maybe it will be different this time?
