Let's do that now with vouchers!
First, I quickly want to say that $5 is what I'm looking for if all the stars align. Usually this doesn't happen. But I don't think all the stars need to align for another double from here.
This is speculation and I eat crayons. DYOR.
Two weeks ago I wrote a post about DEC heading back to peg within the next weeks or months. I said I was going to hold my DEC until it went back to peg. This would have been a 50% move from where it was when I published that post. To me, that move is about the closest thing to a guarantee you get in investing and I was all in.
Then 5 hours later I sold all my DEC.
Why?
Two reasons:
First, it ran up 25% that night. When I said I expected DEC to run back to its peg, I didn't mean all at once. So chances were high it was ahead of itself and would pull back.
And no, I'm not cool enough to have sold the top.
Second, vouchers seemed better.
I already had some vouchers and they were sitting at $0.40 USD or .78 hive and that seemed way too low for reasons we'll discuss. So I took my DEC proceeds and bought a few thousand more vouchers.
DEC should definitely go up 50% over some period of time but when I thought about how 50% increase in vouchers is only $0.60, I realized 50% was probably a layup and we might be looking at multiples in vouchers.
So I went on a buying spree.
I could sell these vouchers and buy 80% more DEC than I had. I still believe there's a 50% run coming in DEC after all, but I'm not going to.
Not only am I not going to but I decided yesterday to sell the 25000 SPS I had that wasn't staked and buy more vouchers at around 1.2 hive/$0.66 USD.
OK but why vouchers? Why now? Why do I think vouchers can go higher than DEC or SPS even as DEC and SPS sit flat and vouchers have already made an 80% run higher?
If you've been tuning into the town halls lately, you know there is a LOT of stuff coming. The last town hall seemed to be one giant announcement about the announcements coming at the next 6 town halls.
And the first of them tomorrow seems to be the biggest. Why?
Several reasons. While we can only speculate, I think the first one is that we're going to get the finalized details on Rift Watchers tomorrow.
So that's what we know to be true.
Now, what has been speculated by the team and is likely true but not yet confirmed?
What has been speculated on and could happen but I don't consider likely?
What can be gleaned from all this?
Vouchers are about to become important again.
When CL came out vouchers were $20. That will absolutely not happen again.
The fomo at the time of the CL release was so high that it was commonly believed that CL would sell out in a single day LOL. People were buying vouchers because they legit thought they weren't going to get to buy a pack.
Rift Watchers on the other hand could sell out extremely fast. A single day is unlikely but with only 3 million packs it's possible fomo could kick in quickly. They would be smart to make every pack require a voucher but they probably won't.
I expect the voucher need to RW to be 500k-600k.
No idea.
But I have no way to know how many are sitting in wallets outside of the game.
If I do some back of the envelope math, it looks like there's been about 9 million vouchers minted since the minting started. Probably 2-3 million have been burned with CL packs and licenses.
That means there's something like 6.5 million total vouchers left in existence.
This means even if they required all 3 million packs to sell with a voucher, we would still have millions of vouchers in circulation. And most likely they will only need about 600k of them.
So why should they go up?
The first thing is to realize that total supply doesn't matter. It's liquid supply that matters. How many people are aware enough and willing to part with their vouchers at the given price?
Right now there are only 400k vouchers on the market at all. And yesterday that was 500k so people are pulling them off the market as we speak. This shows me that at the current price, fewer people are willing to part with their vouchers than they were the day before even though the price is now much higher.
340k of these vouchers are in liquidity pools. That means pulling a few hundred thousand from there is going to skyrocket price.
The other <60k of these are on hive engine.
Prices have doubled in just a few days of light buying.
For $90k you could leave hive engine with crumbs. The market simply isn't ready for a fomo event but one is about to happen anyway.
Rift Watchers is only able to be purchased with SPS. Why does that matter? Because most people hoarding SPS don't want to spend any of it. So there's a good chance many will head to the market to pick up more rather than just spend what they got from the airdrop.
SPS could get pushed up fast.
There are a lot of people who want to see high priced SPS before they decide to pull the trigger on licenses.
There are 1700 licenses left in tranche 1.
When licenses launched they sold about 2300 of them in a few hours. One of the announcements that is coming very soon is SPS rewards going to license holders. This in itself will spark some demand as lots of people have been skeptical about seeing these rewards and have waited. There are also a lot of people who still want to buy in tranche 1 before the price heads from $3000 to $5000.
If SPS bumps up over 10 cents, we could see a lot of people start buying licenses. And if tranche 1 gets low, that could bring another wave of buyers.
Why is this important?
500 vouchers gets you half off when buying a license. That means any voucher on the market under $3 is a discount on licenses and will absolutely get bought up if the need arises.
For tranche 1 to sell out would mean another 850k vouchers burned.
But wait, there's more!
If we get into tranche 2, that means any voucher under $5 is a discount. Does this mean vouchers would have to get to $5, or even $3? Nope. But they easily could if there's a frenzy.
While I can hear you saying, "yeah but most of those people already have the vouchers and won't need to buy them", that also means more vouchers that won't go on the market for the people who have presale/license dreams or who just start speculative buying vouchers when prices start moving higher.
But that's not all. All week there's been something else being hinted at on their discord that will be announced in the town hall:
The Tower defense game.
(Looks like a tower defense game to me anyway)
There's a new game coming and its going to have packs.
Most likely those packs are going to go on sale pretty soon even though the game won't launch for a while. And its extremely likely those packs will require vouchers.
They are so excited about this that Aggroed has been in the mavericks chat saying he expects these pack sales to finally nuke the DEC supply. I'm thinking they don't want to wait until next year to do that. Plus it's a third party developing it who might need some funding now.
What are the odds they sell packs in a presale for a new game and do not require vouchers? I think they are slim.
Yapabmatt loves game theory.
Let's look at the game theory if all this happens at once and requires vouchers.
SPS heads higher at the same time the DEC supply gets nuked causing SPS to start getting burned for DEC and new nodes. Vouchers can be used for licenses, Rift Watchers, or the tower defense game. If you have them will you use them or sell them off and hope to use the profits to get in a better position with those things later? Will Rift Watchers be around later? There's only 3 million packs and like licenses, they get even more attractive if SPS goes up.
If you buy more licenses, you get more vouchers and SPS which just went way up in value so that looks good but man, look at those deals on the tower defense game they're likely to give in order to get people to spend 6 months before game launch! Can I really afford to pass that up?
What will people do? What about the other 6 weeks of announcements? You definitely want SPS staked for GLS airdrops right? And because in a few months you'll need it staked to get SPS rewards right? And rewards just got better so it would be a good idea to spend on building or renting your deck right?
Many people expect CL packs to sell out before the end of the year too and what if RW cards are really good and we start feeling like there could be an after market for those packs once they run out?
Lots to consider and that's how the team wants it.
Don't forget they keep teasing huge land announcements coming at Splinterfest in October.
So yeah... vouchers.
Kind of thinking a vouchers sitting at $0.70 right now might give me a nice return. Better than the 50% coming from DEC and likely better than SPS which takes considerably more to move the price and could fall every time bitcoin takes a hit.
Are boom times ahead for Splinterlands?
If so, what do you think the best asset to hold right now is?
