Re: HIVE price is Irrelevant - But Hive is Primed for AI Era!

igormuba(71)

Published in

#hive

Words

2624

Reading

12 min

Listen

Play

15h

I am writing this in reply to HIVE price is Irrelevant - But Hive is Primed for AI Era!

Because I was pointed to it in a comment on my post

I just came to withdraw my powerdown and saw your comment under my latest post. I am formatting it as a reply on an e-mail.

Dear @apshamilton,

You have so many assumptions that are simply wrong and naive in its optimist.
This post has so much circlejerkin from people trying to farm social credits it is dystopian.

I don't see the HIVE market price as relevant measure of value of the HIVE blockchain or anything much at all.

But it is relevant. Our whole social aspect is bribing people, specially from poor countries, into posting for a few cents. Not that price would change anything, Hive has an self-reinforced tendency towards centralization that would keep small creators rewards stuck at a few cents forever even with price going up. Going down it is worse because centralization continues undermining smaller creators and their smaller and smaller rewards get exponentially smaller and smaller, smaller in HIVE terms and smaller in dollar terms.

a lower price reduces the dollar value of a given HIVE payout
you can't promote a token-funded reward program and pretend tthe value of the token doesn't matter.

What happens to economies when inflation is high?
There are incentives to try to keep your share, but most importantly, there are incentives to spend it before inflation compounds their losses of value.

Proof of Brain (Not AI Slop)

This whole section is based on pipedreams.

HIVE was never intended to be an investment instrument

HIVE is traded and held. Calling it a non-investment ignores the incentives to maximize reward vs the risk of losing value and being diluted.

to distribute a token widely to people [...] producing content good enough

Correct and we failed at that. Quality of posts is shit and we curate shitty posts too much.

And you know why we curate shitty posts so much?

HIVE was never intended to be an investment instrument

Because this assumption is wrong.
People delegate to shitty curators and vote shitty projects because they don't want to be left behind by inflation.

They know if they do not get a high APR from curation they will be deluted.

The (high BTW) inflation creates an incentive to maximize your share of the inflation.

If low quality curation pays better than good quality curation then users have to choose either earnings or quality. I see centalized, I see people choose earnings.

The choice is not obvious, it is not a clear fork on the road where people consciously choose "oh ok so here I have a clear choice, do I want to vote for quality or for reward?". It is more subtle than that but it is the reasonable conclusion if quality is not the rewarding factor. If it were we would have very high quality content. We do not, we have a lot of mediocre content and people spamming lazy low effort content.

Ironically even brainrots on Instagram and Tiktok have, argueably, higher levels of effort than most content on Hive because it is aimed for engagement and attention retention, Hive content is aimed at farming rewards.

while most online platforms have been taken over by AI Slop, HIVE hasn't

This is straight up funny
There is this meme about it:

The joke is that it is not that "there are fewer AI generated images" but actually you stopped detecting that is is AI. this is very true for Hive. If you think Hive has not been taken by AI slop it just means your eyes are not open and your slop detector is not well adjusted.

Anyways, posts on Hive are slop in general, AI or not. People don't care to read and write.

Not even just posts, now we are financing subs for people to create more AI-made projects while absolutely no one doing that has any real work experience to know how to manage a project or develop a product. They are just prompting away because the inflation rewards keep on coming.

There is AI slop on posts and on projects. It is all low effort, with a very few exceptions AND I AM GENUINELY SORRY FOR THE EXCEPTIONS THAT ARE NOT LOW EFFORT AND NOT LOW QUALITY, they are getting their attention dilluted.

Community - [...] one of the most active ones in crypto

Not by far. Do you have any numbers? We are extremely small and dwingling by the day. I'd bet many crypto subreddits have more active users than the whole sum of all active users on all of Hive, not to mention other platforms.

and the only one where community interaction happens mainly on the chain itself.

Not the brag you think it is. The fedivese is decentralized. The fediverse is not a blockchain and manages to be more decentralized than Hive. It is better than Hive in terms of quality, quantity and everything else and in between, all that without inflation because it is not about the money.

Why does it matter that it is a blockchain? Genuinely. Freedom from "censorship"? So the posts are always on chain? My brother in christ, if anyone is actively trying to escape censorship the last thing they want is their activity registered on a blockchain forever and fully traceable. We are not anonymous. We have the opposite o privacy.

It is the reason HIVE was able to successfully fork [...] Justin Sun would have blocked centralised channels of communication [...] if he could have.

How so? You think he would be able to contact John Discord, Dmitry Telegram or Mark Whatsapp and tell them to shut the dissidents off? No he wouldn't.

Matter of fact, a blockchain is fairly easy to censor by governments by the way, the list of nodes is public...

a decentralised, censorship resistant, hugely redundant

I think I made it clear why that either doesn't matter or the way we implemented it is detrimental to its goal.

I also don't want to have to pay

Someone has to, one way or another. No free lunch.

Decentralised, permissionless, massively redundant [...] for developers & AI agents.

Yep. AI agents, famous for being slop generators, I thought you said

HIVE have said NO to AI Slop

Hiveans, in general (and I am very sorry for the exceptions) are unskilled. Our most important representatives have had very little, to none, experience building things on a professional setting inside of Hive. We WE HAVE AN INBRED ECOSYSTEM that keeps degenerating because it can't attract external talent, be it content creators or devs, and the ones who improve end up leaving because Hive is just humiliating for those people in the way it rewards mediocrity.

While human developers have been slow to adopt it [refering to Hive as a database]

Yes, and at Hive mediocre people have adopted it way too fast.

And your explanation for that adoption problem is that AI developers will eventually discover us? And come save us all? That is hoping for a miracle, not evidence, not grounded on anything. Maybe we should pray harder to the US west coast gods then.

The ONLY surviving algorithmic stablecoin.

First, wrong, just google "oldest still surviving algorithmic stablecoins".

Also, not the brag you think it is. HBD is putting HIVE on its knees. Debt is not a brag. HBD fuels pumps during bullish seasons and fuels dumps during bearish seasons. HBD is basically leveraging HIVE, you know what happens to leveraged economies eventually when they can't get a profitable result from the leveraging?

HBD is different [...] range of use cases and a strong community.

Circlejerking. Does not stand to reality. The community is weak and dwindling. The usecases are very specific and have not given a positive result to Hive.

It is far better protected [...] thus has survived

Survivorship bias

Outside of haircut conditions a lower HIVE price means more more HIVE per HBD is redeemed, creating a damocles sword ready to fall (into the exchange order books). Again, price matters as opposed to what you claim over and over.

It survived because it is small and no one cares. Plus the people holding it know that if they redeem it will crash everything. Do you even know the market cap of HIVE and HBD and how they work?

"survived" does not mean the economy is good and also does not mean it is not shitty. It sounds obvious but when fallacies are used the obvious has to be said: EVERYTHING SURVIVES UNTIL IT DIES.

The price, by the way, shows the market does not trust Hive economically. Again, price matters.

medium of exchange [...] relatively small part of HIVE [...] about to become more important because of AI micropayments.

Again circlejerking. Wishful thinking. Not gonna happen. There are much larger, better, more trusted, more widely adopted blockchains with less bullshit than Hive. Hive keeps failing at driving HBD adoption not for not trying but because, apparently, people don't care and the economy is poorly designed, plus the userbase is small and dwindling

AI Agents can't open bank accounts or pass KYC

Edit: I google and Visa and many other better payments methods are much more advanced in micropayments than any blockchain. There is a reason why AI APIs are paying in cash anyways.
Source: https://www.visa.com/en-us/solutions/intelligent-commerce

The humans who built them still do. Crypto in general is fully traceable, not all, not yet, but Hive is. On-chain anonymity is pipedream. Because everything is registered forever the concept of Harvest now, decrypt later applies to the owners of said AI agents, if they want to be anonymous they shouldn't use a blockchain because given enough time and enough activity they will be deanonymized.

But for AI agents, crypto micropayments will be the standard transaction method.

Possibly, but Hive surely won't. This section is just wishful thinking "oh in an ideal world in the future it will be glorious adn things will workout". That is delusional, I wonder if you truly believe that or you are just writing because it pays.

And if you do believe that, why? I mean materially why? You whole post has been a make believe fairytale. Do you have any basis, any number, any material backing the claim that Hive has any shot of being what it is in your mind?

HIVE & particularly HBD are primed for the AI Era.

Come on. This is all too cringe and hard to read because it sounds delusional. What do you have to back this claim? Is this a wish? Is this a dream? Or do you have any information that backs this up?

Sounds good, like a dream, because it is. You didn't bring anything material.

The only thing the HIVE price needs to do is be high enough to make being a top 20 witness profitable

True. Fuck everyone else.

is not intended to be a long term investment. But even analysed as an investment

Because you can't stay on your fairy tale forever can you?

That is precisely why people try to optimize their gains on Hive.

People treat Hive as an investiment, they try to optimize their voting, they follow curation trails, none of that to make the community better but to earn a bigger share of the inflation and not get dilluted.

I am very sorry for the people that do try to curate well and improve Hive, decentralize it and improve the quality of content and apps, you are the minority and the minority owns a disproportional power because IT PAYS OFF TO BE SLOPPY AND TRY TO OPTIMIZE FOR GAINS.

HIVE is a high inflation crypto

Which is precisely why people try to optimize, it is an investment if not in money then in time and if they don't optimize they get dilluted but if they optimize they hurt the ecosystem.

Total return is what counts

Yes, particularly because of price loss. What does not count is the number of tokens in your account because it does not stablish gain. Getting a higher APR on issuance means the possibility for dillution at the bottomline.

A company that emmits shares (in general terms) dillutes the shareholders that doesn't at least subscribe and acquires new shares to keep his proportional stake, regardless of asset price.

Hive is like that, it is like a company that emit shares and allows some people to get some for free and others have to either be dilluted or buy up. This is the worst. This is high inflation in practice.

Hive protocol issuance can be useful but by itself does not prove it creates value. Mathematically, at unchanged valuation, it is effectively REDUCES TOTAL RETURN for holders whose balances grow slower than supply, see why:

Very important context to stop the economic flat earthism:

Please, read about Theoretical ex-rights price

An imperfect analogy can be made because Hive doesn't have subscription rights, but the idea of buying printed tokens... Is similar enough so that I think it applies.

And Analysis of Dividends and Share Repurchases

It may be long and this is a long e-mail, but the key ideas, and I quote, are:

Stock dividends and splits merely carve equity into smaller pieces and do not create wealth for shareholders.
The first, MM, argues that given perfect markets dividend policy is irrelevant.

Read more about MM on wikipedia:
Modigliani–Miller theorem

Suppose there are 100 outstanding shares worht $1, you have 10 shares, supppose they issue 100 shares without bringing in new capital. You get 10 more and everyone else also gets enough to keep their proportion. Assuming its total value stays at $100 you have now 20 shares worth $0.50 each, congratulations on your 100% yield and 0% gain.

In this example the distribution has no losers.

If instead of 10 you got 5 shares your share count increased by 50% but your value decreased by 25%. That is the intuitive conclusion people have and it is a real market dynamic and it pushes people to optimize their share of issuance. Everyone else that doens't at least match the inflation loses.

In this example, wich matches Hive's reality, you lost.

So the total return counts, as you say but not as you think. The total reuturn is, mathematically for most people, likely to be negative the higher the inflation is or at the very least an absolute dead break even if absolutely no ones beats the inflation, which is as dellusional as it is stupid, imagine having to have perfect inflation distribution just to stay exactly where you were?

Because perfect equal distribution can't exist then centralization is a tendency on Hive.

Hive has horrible economics.

So focussing on the HIVE price vs the legacy chain

At least points to who is doing less economic damage. Steem doesn't need to beat Hive at anything, they jsut need to destroy themselves slower. The fact we matched them in market cap and were briefly below them speaks volumes about the quality of the Hivean economy. Regardless of theirs.