Q1 2025 was one of the worst times for many crypto investors. For those who have been following the 70% BTC and 30% altcoin portfolio, the losses might be around 30% - 40% for a low risk strategy with top 50 coins but as the risk appetite increases, the loses may double in altcoin investments for the first quarter of the year.
Trump 2.0 was a long-awaited era, as crypto investors assumed that Trump would start pumping the markets the moment he became the U.S. president once again. Sadly, most of us forgot that he had to deal with several problems in the macro side so that he could create a game by himself.
The first problem is the war around the world. The wars are keeping the threat vivid and impactful. The second concern is the conflict between the approach considering the interest rates. Trump, as a businessman, does not want interest rates to stay so high that they impede the growth of the economy with limited liquidity and high return offerings for passive investment. Thus, he wants to force the FED to initiate at least 3 rate cuts in 2025 to accelerate the circulation of money among the companies. Liquidity and trades create money.
In January, the market brought a sell off opportunity with the "buy the rumor sell the news" prophesy. Yet, expecting that the money in Bitcoin may flow into the altcoins, crypto holders have had terrible months with lower lows every day. The The downtrend cannot go on for a long time because of the bottoms being tested and there is hardly any desire to accept the losses and sell the coins from the local bottoms.
The pain might be unbearable for the ones who got into crypto in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 but this might be the worst time of the crypto market which has had the biggest losses among all. You will easily notice that there is a negative correlation between the altcoins and Gold, which represents the growing risk and global tension in the world.
Such indices may not perfectly give the bottoms, trend reversals and fundamental analyses but the altcoin index clearly shows that there is no more room to go down in alts.
I firmly believe that April will bring an uptrend unless we suffer from an off - border operation from the world's strongest armies somewhere in the world.
Let's see how things will be in the second quarter.
What do you expect to see in Q2 2025?
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