The amount of people who are totally at ease with a #NoDealBrexit is worrying. We should all be very concerned about no-deal. It’s the one outcome that really has guarantees, and they’re not positives at all.
I’ll try my best to be as clear as I can.
There’s a misunderstanding that we can carry trade as usual under WTO for next few years under no-deal. This is wrong as the Article 24 that does this does not apply to a nation coming OUT of a free trade agreement.
“Trade experts say this covers the circumstances of two countries forming a new trade agreement, not of them leaving one.
WTO #Article24 DOES NOT oblige the EU to continue providing the full benefits of the single market for the next ten years...
nor does it allows the UK to unilaterally offer the EU (and no one else) market access. Source: Dmitry Grozoubinski, a former WTO trade negotiator.
“In any case the overriding concern of industry resulting from a no-deal Brexit is not actually tariffs but the negative impact of border checks resulting from leaving the EU’s customs union and single market.”
the implications are that if the UK leaves the EU with no-deal, it not only loses the single-market trade deal, it loses EVERY SINGLE trade deal with the rest of the world; its also a no-deal with the entire world OVERNIGHT.
No deal will be chaos. It will cause quite an economic slow down. That’s an absolute certain. There is no one of any experience saying otherwise.
Including many leave campaigners. Why else “blitz spirit”?!
sure, the EU will be effected a little bit, but not much. The UK will be effected a lot.
#NoDealBrexit doesn’t threaten the EU. But it does threaten the UK. Let me reiterate: it is literally a cliff. It’s like slamming the entire economy - EVERYTHING - in to a brick wall.
Medicine is being stockpiled.
The UK is, as it stands, leaving Euratom which means no access legally to these the radio isotopes used in cancer treatments. They have a three day life so can’t be stockpiled. Worryingly, there has been no contingency for this what so ever.
however, Business will adapt to #NoDealBrexit sure, but adaption is a long process. The day the UK leaves on a no-deal is as I say a literal brick wall/cliff drop. All economists, main stream and otherwise, agree no deal really will hurt the UK badly.
the thing is, every single item from around the world will no longer be under a trade treaty, every item we export likewise. There will be no legal jurisdiction, no legal oversight, no legal protections; non aside from the most basic of WTO arrangements.
The uk hasn’t the capacity to produce everything it needs. The raw materials simply don’t exist to do so for a start. Even so, it cannot create industry it doesn’t have overnight. So, maybe in 50 years time, sure the uk will eventually be ok.
I cannot emphasis this last point enough. It cannot be exaggerated.
Who’s got 50 years though? What about all of our lives in the mean time? How will the government stop the exodus of people migrating to get a better life? How will we cope with months of shortages? How many lives are we willing to sacrifice? For what? It’s utterly pointless.
