Amid all the excitement and despair (depending on who you are) about Boris Johnson and his cabinet it's easy to forget that the position we were in a few weeks ago hasn't changed in the slightest. What is new is that there's now a clear realisation of that and a decisive response as a result. The position can be summarised thusly.
Theresa May's deal is dead - like the Norwegian Blue.
The EU is not going to budge so there will not be a deal.
That means a no-deal exit.
However there is a clear majority in Parliament that will try to stop that. A vote on that would flush out Tory dissenters such as Hammond, Gauke and Clark but also a slightly smaller number of Labour MPs who would support a no deal exit.
Given 1-4 it's clear there will be a general election, probably in October, maybe in September, on the single issue of Brexit. The EU will unilaterally extend the deadline for our exit to see what the outcome of that election is.
The Cabinet has been put together with that in mind. It's a campaigning one, put together with the intention of fighting a unified and forceful campaign for a WTO terms exit. The question is what will that election produce? It's impossible to answer that right now (although with the polls as they are plus the impact of Scotland you'd have to predict a hung parliament, but that could change). Will there be electoral pacts? I would be confident in predicting one between the LDs and the Greens (which would in reality have Labour as its target) but would there be a Conservative Brexit one? Personally I doubt it - I think one of the goals of an election would be to finish off the Brexit Party and hoover up its votes while shedding a lot of middle class votes to the LDs.
As things stand, Labour could be in big trouble in that scenario. There will be a significant number of current Conservative MPs who will run on a no to a no deal exit platform and a slightly smaller but still significant number of Labour MPs who will run on a pro-no deal exit platform. Will they be given a pass by the respective sides? Hard to know. Meanwhile in Scotland internal Conservative relations could get seriously turbulent.
So we're in for a very interesting three months or so. I think a lot of people will be surprised by the platform I confidently expect the Conservatives to run on. In my view it will be a WTO exit (sold as being forced on us by the EU) - radical free market reforms in some areas - a lot of government spending promises in certain areas such as infrastructure and health - an active industrial policy - a strong pitch for a controlled immigration policy. The underlying philosophy will be that of an active government that combines free market radicalism in some areas with a very hands on approach elsewhere. People have been talking about Singapore but it will be more like South Korea.
