A slightly more serious post on the Cohen/Manafort developments:
Predictions that this will bring down Trump are, at the very least, premature. On the list of Terrible Things Trump Has Done, using Cohen to pay off Stormy Daniels barely registers. If I were drawing up articles of impeachment for Trump, I would list at least a half dozen other charges ahead of this one. If his more serious wrongdoing ("pussy-grabbing," family separation, large-scale fraud and corruption, etc.) didn't sink him, it's far from clear this will.
Impeachment/removal is more a political process than a legal one. It will only happen if enough congressional Republicans decide that it's in their political interests to do it. From that standpoint, it doesn't really matter what I think, or what most of the people reading this post think. You and I are (mostly) people who follow politics closely and already have strong views about Trump. The key question is how this will impact people who are more on the fence (swing voters and reluctant Republican supporters of Trump). If enough of them turn against Trump, he might get the axe. But I'm skeptical yesterday's revelations will move the needle on that more than very modestly. Barring further major damaging revelations (which are certainly possible), Trump will probably get through this, as with several worse scandals before.
But it would also be a mistake to go to the opposite extreme and assume none of this has any real impact, because Trump is a great political genius and/or somehow immune to damage from scandal. His approval rating is far lower than predicted by the state of the economy and other standard political factors. The difference is largely due to his scandals and other terrible behaviour. That leaves the GOP more vulnerable to defeat in this fall, and Trump himself more vulnerable in 2020. And woe betide both him and them if there is a recession at some point in the next 2 years.
