In the 25th chapter of The Prince, Machiavelli considers how much fortune influences human affairs and whether or not it can be resisted. He concludes that for the most part, while fortune varies, men remain much the same so that when they are fortunate it is because their temperament is in accord with the times, but when times change and they do not, they are ruined.
Why Similar Approaches Can Have Different Outcomes
That is how it comes about, he reasons, that sometimes a cautious person can succeed and other times, following a similar procedure, another cautious person will fail, because he is acting cautiously in times that favour swift and impetuous action.
The Fatuity of Success Gurus
So next time a fatuous "success guru" doles out the tired old trope that "all you need to do is copy what successful people do because success leaves clues," remember Machiavelli.
Adaptability is the Key
The key, then, though very difficult for most to do, is to adapt to changing times:
If one could change ones nature with time and circumstance, fortune would never change
(translated by Luigi Ricci)
Here is what Machiavelli actually wrote
Se si mutassi di natura con li tempi e con le cose, non si muterebbe fortuna.
David Hurley
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