The recent insurrection in Russia has sparked keen interest and numerous questions regarding its motivations and consequences. The available information is limited, making it difficult to have a clear understanding of the events. However, by analyzing the available elements, it is possible to speculate on certain aspects of this insurrection.
Difficult to ascertain motivation behind the events in Russia
The motivation behind this insurrection remains unclear. It is not known exactly what prompted the various actors to act in this manner. Political, social, or economic factors could all have played a role in triggering this event. Until we have more information, any interpretation remains pure speculation.
Analysis of Prigozhin's potential objectives and their repercussions on Wagner
It is unlikely that Prigozhin can maintain Wagner as a private army in Ukraine after what has happened. However, it is also unlikely that he simply gave up without accomplishing anything. It is possible that Prigozhin achieved certain objectives, such as Shoigu's resignation. This could lead to a ministerial reshuffle in Russia, with Shoigu assuming another position. The fate of Gerasimov is more uncertain, and it would be interesting to see who would replace him if Shoigu or even Gerasimov were dismissed. If individuals associated with Prigozhin were promoted to higher positions, such as Turchak, Kovalchuk, Likhachev, or Kiriyen, it could constitute a partial victory for the Prigozhin and Wagner clan.
Predicted consequences for the Ministry of Defense following the insurrection
The Russian Ministry of Defense aimed to gain full control over all military units in Ukraine. It is likely that they will succeed in doing so, and the Wagner PMC will be divided. A portion would remain in Ukraine and be integrated into the Russian army, while another portion would remain under Prigozhin's control but operate solely abroad, as before the war. However, if one of Prigozhin's allies takes control of the Ministry of Defense, it can be said that Wagner and Ukraine will remain partly in the hands of the Prigozhin clan.
Consequences of pardons granted to participants in the insurrection in Russia
All participants in the insurrection have been pardoned, but it is likely that Prigozhin will be considered finished as a major Russian political actor, at least for the time being. However, this does not necessarily mean the end of the Prigozhin clan, which could even emerge strengthened from this chaos.
In summary, the insurrection in Russia raises many questions, and the motivations behind this event remain unclear. The long-term consequences and resulting political changes remain uncertain. It is essential to stay informed and closely monitor future developments to better understand the implications of this insurrection in Russia.
