I managed to draw a range, which:
•Was the breaking point leading to both dump (first circle) and surge (second circle)
•Has worked previously when we were in this range.
•Each of the two highlighted reactions to the range were previously leading to huge retracement.
Each point makes validates the range. It is interesting for us only as support.
When we zoom in, we can spot multiple rejection candles on both sides. I think the bottom ones highlighted by red arrows are more relevant as the other might have just been the last breath of bears. Furthermore, market sentiment looks fairly positive as well. Look at COT. It is on its maximum further supporting the idea of another surge upside.
I also checked for seasonality, which suggests going long as well. For me, that is sufficient evidence to go long on this commodity with stop loss in the middle of support range. If price action rules tell me, we will hit the bottom of support once again, I won't hesitate to cancel to position and open long from even lower levels.
Invalidation signal would be if two consecutive candles close below the highlighted range.
Thanks for reading
