Few problems I see with your analysis are:

1. You don’t mention that core Steem blockchain engineers resigned from Steemit Inc. So there really is no Steemit Inc engineering team currently.

2. You say at least 30% will move to the new chain? What is that number based on?

3. You are taking potentially false promises of Justin Sun as facts. At this point, I find it hard to believe JS is interested in contributing to Steem development, listing on exchanges, or onboarding, etc.