In an increasingly unstable world, the possibility of a US military attack on Iran has sparked intense discussions in financial markets. With geopolitical tensions rising, such as the recent nuclear negotiations in Geneva and President Donald Trump's threats to act within 10 to 15 days if no agreement is reached, gold is once again emerging as a safe haven. This precious metal, currently trading around $5,170 per ounce, could experience a significant rally in the event of a military escalation. But how high could its price go? Let's examine this speculation based on historical precedents and expert analysis.
Historically, gold has proven to be a safe-haven asset during geopolitical conflicts. For example, during the US-Iran tensions in 2020, following the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, the price of gold temporarily surpassed $1,600 per ounce. Similarly, during the 1990-1991 Gulf War, gold rose from $384 to $403 in a matter of months, although the rally was short-lived due to the swift end of the conflict. In more recent events, such as the tensions with Iran in January 2026, gold surpassed $5,500 per ounce, driven by a weakening dollar and fears of disruptions to oil supplies. These patterns show that gold tends to gain between 5% and 15% in the first few weeks of a conflict, acting as a hedge against inflation and volatility.
In the hypothetical scenario of a US attack on Iran, analysts anticipate an even greater impact. Bernard Dahdah of Natixis estimates that gold could rally 15% from current levels, reaching between $5,500 and $5,800 in the two weeks following the start of hostilities. This is due to the correlation with oil: a conflict in the Strait of Hormuz could send crude oil prices soaring 180-220%, as happened during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, boosting global inflation and gold demand. Banks like UBS project bullish scenarios where gold reaches $6,000-$7,200, considering Fed rate cuts and massive central bank purchases. JP Morgan goes even further, forecasting $6,300 by year-end if tensions persist.
However, it's not all bullish. If the conflict is brief or resolved diplomatically, gold could correct, as happened after the 2020 tensions. Factors such as a resilient US economy or a strong dollar could limit gains. Furthermore, gold has already risen 80% in the last year, suggesting it may be overbought.
In short, a US attack on Iran could push gold toward $6,000 or more in the short term, fueled by investor panic and energy disruptions. However, this speculation comes with risks: geopolitics is unpredictable, and investors should consider diversification. In a fragmented world, gold reaffirms its role as a strategic asset, but its rise depends on the intensity and duration of the conflict.
