The Super Bowl Example: Looking Beyond the Headlines

The debate became particularly visible during Super Bowl LX.

Public reports highlighted approximately $1.6 billion in prediction-market trading volume compared with roughly $1.4 billion in sportsbook handle.

Viewed in isolation, the figures suggested that event-contract platforms had overtaken traditional betting operators during America's largest wagering event.

The reality is more nuanced.

Once trading volume is converted into a handle-equivalent measure, the gap changes dramatically.

Analysts estimated that sports-related prediction markets generated approximately $317 million in equivalent handle, compared with more than $1.4 billion handled by licensed sportsbooks.

This alternative perspective paints a very different picture of competitive positioning.

Geographic Context Matters

National accessibility further complicates comparisons.

A significant portion of prediction-market activity originates from jurisdictions where online sportsbooks cannot legally operate.

This means a substantial share of volume is not necessarily being taken from sportsbook operators. Instead, it may represent demand from consumers who have no legal sportsbook alternative.

When analysts isolate states where both products directly compete, prediction markets capture a considerably smaller share of betting activity.

Revenue Is Often the Missing Piece

Volume attracts attention.

Revenue determines business value.

This is where many comparisons become misleading.

Sportsbooks generate income through hold percentage—the portion of wagers retained after payouts.

Prediction markets generally earn revenue through transaction fees, commissions, and market-making structures.

Consequently, enormous trading activity does not always produce equally impressive revenue figures.

Industry estimates suggest that sportsbook revenue generated from major events such as the Super Bowl remains substantially higher than comparable prediction-market earnings, even when trading volumes appear competitive.

For investors, this distinction is critical.

A platform processing billions in transactions may still generate far less profit than a sportsbook handling fewer total dollars.