I wonder... Do you recognize this daily chart?
I purposely didn't include any details in the screenshot. I'll give you a hint: it's not from the present.
If you want to guess what is the chart for, and especially, from what period, take a pause now from reading and think about it, because I will divulge these details later on and spoil all your fun. 😀
Scroll down for the rest of the post...
Ok, I guess we are down enough if you don't cheat. ��
Ok, let's see what we were looking at. The portion with a distinct background is what I showed up there, but in this screenshot, I prefer to widen the view more to see the context better.
As you can see, this is the chart of Bitcoin, around the time of the previous halving in May 2020. Not long before that, on March 12th, we had a major one-day crash after Covid-19 was declared a pandemic.
It's interesting that in 2020 we had a V-shape recovery until a few days before the Bitcoin halving, something that cannot repeat these days because we didn't have a crash.
We can also notice a peak in June 2019 at 14k, almost a year before the halving. That again didn't happen this time around. Our peak was mid-March 2024, but we are now quite close to it again, and we can't exclude the possibility of another ATH soon. Just as we can't exclude that it could go down significantly from here. I'm more inclined toward the second variant because we need a valley between the two major peaks.
But since we had our first peak much later than in 2020's bull run (if that was the peak this time around in March 2024), we won't have as much time between the peaks, if we still believe in the theory of two peaks for this bull market. I'm considering the possibility that we might have only one major peak this bull market, in which case, we'll keep going up, with some periods of relief or pullback, but without long valleys between major peaks.
It is said that history doesn't repeat but it often rhymes. I'm not very convinced it will rhyme with the 2020 bull market, but I do think the cycle can still be relied on. Although I am watching for signs that something like gold can happen to Bitcoin after its spot ETFs were approved. When the first gold-based ETF was created it entered into a 8-year uptrend.
