It seems beyond debate: we are in the middle of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. And it's incredibly scary.
With the extensive use of computers, robotics and artificial intelligence, it looks like there won't be space for humans in the so-called Industry 4.0, as all the workers will be replaced by smarter and faster machines.
This is true just in part; if it's undeniable that many jobs could, and will, be automated in the future ( McKinsey estimated that currently demonstrated technologies could automate 45 percent of the activities people are paid to perform), the direct consequence might not be the vertical increase in unemployment, according to many studies and to the opinions of many experts.
The above-cited study from McKinsey, after having analyzed 2000 work activities for more than 800 occupations, arrives to a somewhat obvious but remarkable conclusion: humans are strategical, while machines are tactical. And it's from this conclusion that the discussion should start. From the First Industrial Revolution in 19th century, machines and automation have relieved workers from repetitive (tactical) jobs as the ones in the industry, while leaving more space for occupations requiring the use of imagination, empathy, creativity and common sense (strategical).
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Activities as teaching, managing people, nursery (sometimes known as knowledge works) as well as unpredictable physical activities (breeding animals outdoor for example) have in general a very low automation potential but require skills; this is one of the key point to understand where our future will go.
A recent study published by the World Economic Forum has analyzed 96% of the jobs currently employing people in the United States and shows that, through reskilling, 95% of the at-risk workers would find a new job with an average increase in the salary of 15.000$. These results might seem incredible, but are not new to people that study this problem: an easy example of reskilling is what happened with the introduction of ATMs in the banks. The introduction of the Automated Teller Machine (ATM) gave the human tellers the opportunity to upskill, giving the opportunities to the bank's costumers of having a wider range of financial services.
The previous example, in addition, brings us to another key point: the companies should recognize the potential hidden in their employees and shouldn't use technology to get rid of them. Melonee Wise, the CEO and founder of Fetch Robotics, said in an interview: "Your computer doesn't unemploy you, your robot doesn't unemploy you. The companies that have those technologies make the social policies and set those social policies that change the work force".
The role of the society and of the governments is crucial in the reskilling revolution, as the process is far from being immediate. The World Economic Forum estimated that 70% of the workers affected by the automation would need to retrain in a new career, which clearly requires time and investments.
Supporting reskilling could seem a philanthropic concept, but it's instead something that could turn out to be very good for businesses and economies. Nowadays the world is filled up with products that consumers don't need, while new technologies have opened paths to new opportunities not yet exploited; increasing the productivity of a factory might not be as remunerative as having a good idea (Facebook, Google, Uber and all these huge companies don't produce goods, but make an incredible amount of money).
Another very interesting solution is the one proposed by Bill Gates: taxing robots. Substituting human employees with robots means that industries would produce more while paying less taxes. This could be avoided by simply taxing robots as would be done with humans, and using those money to support reskilling, or more in general to support the welfare of the country.
This discussion is wide and super interesting, and its definitely one of the biggest challenges of the next years.
Hope to read in the comments your opinions, as well as suggestions on where to improve my next articles.
Francesco
This is the first post of a series, in which I will try to analyze the future of automation in different fields. Don't miss the next post in which I will write about autonomous driving
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