We expect posts that would make more than 20 STEEM under the old rules to earn more after the changes.

That's really weird!

When I look at the graph for the convergent linear curve... I don't see it ever going above the old linear curve... why then would a post earn more after the fork?

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If I take that into a graph calculator I don't see this go above the old figures anywhere. Are you expecting claims to be worth more STEEM after the fork so that the same amount (slightly less actually) would be worth more STEEM in rewards than before?

I guess that could make sense as the globally distributed claims get less under the same number of rshares being generated through voting. Adding in some more of those free flags to the pool of votes, the same amount of claims might be worth even more in actual rewards... did I just answer my own question?