EUR/USD: risk is down;
1 Non-agricultural and salary data released last Friday reinforces the Fed's expectation of a faster rate hike. Sino-US trade conflicts will put pressure on the euro, and short-term technical indicators are bearish;
2 the short-term downward resistance of the euro against the US dollar is getting less and less. The current exchange rate is trading below 1.1546, closing at 1.1568 (38.2% retracement of the 1.1302-1.1733 rally). The 5-10 daily moving average fell, suggesting that the exchange rate will fall further. RSI is also bearish;
3 In addition, non-agricultural data suggests that the tight employment market in the United States will lead to an increase in wage growth, and the spread will further benefit the US dollar. In August, the average hourly wage rate increased by 0.4%, and the annual rate increased by 2.9%, the fastest growth rate since June 2009.
4 The continued increase in wages will force the Fed to raise interest rates, much higher than the neutral interest rate. However, the current wage growth is not very fast, last Friday's data raised inflation expectations and strengthened the Fed's expectation of accelerating interest rate increases;
5 Sino-US trade conflicts and emerging market concerns will also boost the dollar
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