Gold Futures Technical Analysis

It seems difficult to predict a higher high for gold in the near future.

1. The two previous swing highs are making lower highs,
2. Impulse waves are showing weakness,
3. Moderate bearish divergence is appearing on the RSI.

Short-term scenario: a bit more of a retrace to form wave (iv) and then down to $1228 for wave (v).

Short to medium term scenarios:

1. Then one scenario is the establishment of a new (stronger) impulse wave that will set higher highs.
2. The other scenario that I believe is more likely, is that after hitting ~$1228 there will be another impulse wave that ultimately fails. This will form a W X Y X Z correction for a 1:1 extension of wave (A) down to ~$1114 over the coming months.

Medium-term scenario 1: a downwards breakout from the rising wedge that appears to be forming as a correction of the price decline since the high of 2011. Completion of the larger degree ABC correction suggests sub $700 prices.
Scenario 2: an upwards breakout from the ABCDE wedge to re-test the 2011 high.

Can the futures price for gold be pushed down below $1000? Unfortunately, yes it can. This may squeeze marginal producers (I personally do not take any joy from this. Also, my job in transport has often been linked to the health of commodities prices and mines). I have included a link to support the view that gold mining will remain profitable for some low cost mines below $1000. http://www.mining.com/10-mines-still-making-good-money-if-the-gold-price-falls-50/.

These conclusions were reached 100% through technical analysis, and no investigation of the demand or fundamental analysis was undertaken in this case. I am not anti-gold in any sense, and consider gold an excellent store of wealth (especially in uncertain times).