Ok, so what % drop from current price would need to happen to make you feel like a difficulty-related capitulation has happened?

What I am trying to say is that it's already been 11 days since the halving and we haven't seen either:

1/ a significant drop in difficulty
2/ a significant drop in price

so I am wondering how your framework account from that and why you think a hash-rate related miner capitulation is more likely now (5 days before Bitcoin will automatically adjust difficulty down) than it was at the moment of the halving or before the halving.

Not trying to trick you here, just challenging your assumptions so we can get closer to the truth ;)