The adolescence of the 21st century began when the global economy emerged from the financial crisis of 2008-2009; a situation that models the current economic system, where negative interest rates, decentralized cryptocurrencies and the Fintech revolution stand out. Without a doubt, the decade about to end has generated profound changes; We will be reviewing them below.
At the end of the most recent economic recession, interest rates have been in continuous decline, with the purpose of encouraging the expansion in which we still find ourselves; Meanwhile, government debts have achieved interest rates below 0% for the first time in 11 years.
The bonds granted by the United States have fallen 200 points, while those of Germany have fallen more than 400 points.
Currently more than 12 trillion dollars (a quarter of the outstanding bonds) have been causing negative returns.
The reason behind this situation: Central banks flooding the stock exchanges with asset purchases, manipulation of the yield curve, and technological revolution generating deflation.
The climate is now an issue to consider before making investments, something that was not even thought of in the past decade.
Climate change generates more and more severe floods and fires, and as a result, large crops that are lost in their entirety, while those that are saved, are not as expected; a situation that ends up generating incalculable losses.
The decade about to end has left polluting companies abandoned, many totally missing, and others with less and less value.
Conservative environmental companies, such as Beyond Meat, have gained ground exponentially. According to the Global Sustainable Investment Alliance, more than USD 30 Billion is allocated to sustainable investments, a figure that means double the total for 2011.
Another sector that has been affected in a very positive way is that of electric cars. A Tesla share was worth about USD 17 at the beginning of 2010, today it is worth more than USD 380. Billions of dollars are destined to the development of this new trend.
The battery producing industry today is at its best; and it is expected that by 2025, the demand for the main raw material for the production of batteries, Lithium, will be multiplied by 3.
However, the sale of electric cars has not yet reached its peak; of every 10 cars, only 2 are moved by electricity; a situation that is caused by the much lower cost of fossil fuel powered vehicles; But this does not seem to be a problem, since climate change will not wait for anyone if the necessary measures are not taken, and the promotion of the use of electric vehicles is one of them.
In this same order of ideas, we find shale oil at a climax point, but that does not favor the improvement of the climate.
The new modality of oil extraction through Fracking has caused the United States to be the largest oil producer of today, with more than 12.5 billion barrels of oil produced per day, this being double what the country produced in 2010. This same situation has also made the economic power the largest oil exporter for the first time in 40 years.
With shale oil being produced in unimaginable amounts a few years ago, supply has flooded the market, struggling with a demand that is expected to accentuate its fall in the near years, caused by the rulers' concern about climate change.
The 2nd decade of the millennium has witnessed how only 5 companies have come to represent 7% of the global stock index.
This select group is made up of: Apple, Facebook, Alphabet INC whose main subsidiary is Google, Netflix and Amazon.
These 5 companies have a market capitalization equivalent to more than 3.9 billion US dollars; exponential growth if we compare it with the 100,000 million they had by the beginning of 2010.
As for economic production as a whole, they are above Great Britain and very close to that of Germany.
To give you an idea of the stock market performance of these large companies, an investment of USD 25,000 in Netflix at the beginning of the decade, today would amount to more than USD 1 million.
Today we realize how they have radically changed the way we receive information, the development of work, and how we entertain ourselves.
In the midst of a controversial exit from the economic recession, low interest rates caused hungry investors with attractive returns, end up creating centennial bonds, offered by large companies, firms, and mainly governments.
In 2019 there were already a good number of centennial bonds, however, when Mexico launches its centennial bond, expiring in 2110, the interest in it was exponential, promoting that today there are more than 1,400 bonds of this type, with an approximate total value of 170,000 million dollars.
Argentina's centennial bond, launched in 2017, has been one of the most controversial, due to the delinquent and speculative nature of the country.
Currently, an investment in Argentina's centennial bond would be equivalent to less than 50% that cost it at the beginning.
However, not all have been of such poor performance, on the contrary, there are totally opposite poles. The one offered by Austria, also in 2017, has generated a yield of more than 60% in what it leads from its short life.
While the economy began to find a way out of the strong recession in which it was, a new currency was being born, capable of revolutionizing the economic model, she was Bitcoin.
The digital currency based on cryptography was born in 2009, but it was not until 2010 when it began to be a topic of interest in specialized forums.
The first publicly registered Bitcoin transaction shows that it cost only 3 cents; a surprising value if we compare it with the current one of almost USD 7,500, even more so with the maximum of almost USD 20,000.
At the end of the decade we observe how young cryptocurrencies have already revolutionized business and finance; Meanwhile, their decentralized nature has meant that governments are not a problem for their expansion, on the contrary, they have had to start taking them into account, showing us a very probable future, where it is they who carry all the exchange value.
By the beginning of 2010, the market for this new technology was nil. 10 years later, its market capitalization is equivalent to more than 200,000 million dollars, and with a maximum reached in 2017 of more than 850,000 million dollars.
It is impossible to predict the future, however, it is clear that the trends outlined in the previous paragraphs will be part of the next expansionary cycle of the economy.
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