• ..if only 13 million cars are getting scrapped each year, that implies a 20-year average useful life and a 'normalized' annual SAAR of 13 million...not that complicated but somewhat inconvenient for the auto OEMs.
  .
  The problem is that the useful life of cars has actually improved dramatically over the past 20 years which only makes the 'normalized' number even worse. Per data from the Bureau of Transportation, the average age of vehicles has increased at a CAGR of 1.6% per year over the past two decades
  .
  ...more than enough to offset population growth.

in other words...sales have topped off. From now on it's down..down...DOWN.

But WAIT...there's MORE