Your vision of the future could very well come to be. Ultra-low fertility rates are shrinking the workforce and consumer base. Projections are showing a peak population by 2080 followed by rapid decline. If 2080 is correct then we'll have more than enough time to transition into this new societal model. Elon Musk frequently talks about this population collapse while skirting near-term implications, maybe to keep investor confidence. Musk shared during his keynote that Tesla's is pivoting away from cars (ceasing production of the S, 3, X, and Y by 2030) to products like autonomous RoboTaxis, Optimus robots, and AI-driven ecosystems. I think this could break the cycle of decline and actually turn demographic scarcity into an opportunity. I think you’re right that only companies creating new, indispensable products (like the iPhone did in 2005) can grow in these kinds of shrinking markets.

Your point that only people consume is true in our current timeline. However, Tesla’s ecosystem is hoping to blur this line. Optimus robots, powered by Tesla’s AI, could become semi-autonomous economic agents creating a circular economy. Robots will maintain RoboTaxis, build solar farms, and recycle materials, reducing costs and will create some self-sustaining revenue loops. Optimus will also fill in for the shrinking workforce. In our aging society, its likely that robots will effectively act as a kind of proxy for human consumption. For example, a family might not buy a car but will pay for RoboTaxi rides or Optimus services, effectively outsourcing consumption to Tesla’s network. This could flip the demographic decline into a driver for greater demand for automation.

I think AI will potentially be solving all kinds of existential problems humanity is facing in the future as well, fertility being one of those. Humanity's behavior and intelligence just isn't evolving at a fast enough rate to get us out of the many challenges that we're faced with. I think our impediments are more behavioral than intellectual, things like—greed, corruption, and tribalism are holding us back.

Our future is still somewhat blurry but I remain optimistic. I'm so glad more people are thinking about this now and it's an ongoing conversation. As much as it pains us, and no matter how much we complain about change, humanity is awfully good at making major pivots when we're required to. I have faith we'll solve this. Thanks for the thoughtful comment!