This is a brilliant mental model. The chess vs. poker spectrum is a perfect way to frame life's uncertainties. It strongly reminds me of the shift in physics from the classical, Newtonian worldview to quantum mechanics.
​For centuries, the universe was seen as a giant, deterministic chess game where every effect had a clear cause. Then, quantum physics revealed that at the fundamental level, it's all about probabilities and managing uncertainty—a cosmic poker game.
​Your final point is the most crucial one: the real skill is knowing which game you're playing at any given moment. Thanks for a truly thought-provoking read.