You are spot on. The rally looks exactly like the rally from 2017 but the numbers aren't quite right. The doubling curve is an excellent metric to realize this fact.
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $800 | $1600 | $3200 | $6400 | $12800 | $25600 | $51200 |
In 2017 the active price of Bitcoin was x12 above the curve.
This is true mega-bubble territory, and will likely happen again in Q4 2021 or Q2 2022.
In 2013 the doubling curve was $100.
Again, we spiked up x11 that to $1100 before the crash back down to the curve at $200 one year later.
We should not sell until Bitcoin is AT LEAST x10 the curve.
Right now that price stands at $128k, but in a year it's $256k.
These are the kinds of numbers we should be looking for before taking gainz.
Conclusion
As you say, many many eager crypto enthusiasts are going to get fleeced for their money right at the last second before all the huge gains are made. That's just the way it is. Too bad so sad. Weak hands stay weak.
RE: Lost Between Peaks