The World Rally Championship (WRC) season has reached it’s final stage, with only one event left: Rally Japan 🇯🇵. The event is held from November 21st–24th. After an intense season and the recent Central European Rally (CER) drama, it all boils down to two drivers for the championship title: Thierry Neuville or Ott Tänak. With Elfyn Evans and Sébastien Ogier now out of the title race, all eyes are on the final fight between the two teammates.
Neuville holds a solid 25-point lead over Tänak, giving him a clear advantage heading into the upcoming round. But as all rally fans know, anything can happen, and the title (theoretically) remains reachable to both of them.
The Math Behind the Title
For Neuville, the title is within a grab with a relatively straightforward goal:
- Neuville needs just 6 points to secure the world championship.
- This means that if he scores at least 6 points, Tänak’s result will be irrelevant—even if Tänak scores the maximum possible 30 points, he wouldn’t be able to surpass Neuville’s total.
(I don’t like math.. so.. thanks FIA for complicating things🤣)
The simplest way for Neuville to achieve this is to finishat least sixth on Saturday and bringing the car to the end of the event, even if he finishes last in the final stages on Sunday. If he can do that, the championship is his🥳.
Howeverrrr here’s Tänak’s Challenge; he’ll face a much steeper climb:
- He must hope for a total misstep by Neuville and deliver a near-perfect performance himself (which is honestly.. at least to me unimaginable but we’ll see😉)
- Tänak needs to score between 26 and 30 points to have a shot at the title.
To make it even more complicated (because I can😛) for Tänak to secure more than 26 points, he must:
- Finish in first or second place on Saturday,
- Place first on Sunday
- Win the power stage.
This adds up to a maximum of 30 points, which would be Tänak’s only hope if Neuville fails.
There’s a slim chance that Tänak could win if Neuville were to retire completely. However, even in this scenario, Tänak would still need to meet the scoring conditions above to claim the title🤯🫣😵💫 (rally is a complicated sport 🫨😩)
Rally Japan now becomes the ultimate test of skill, strategy, and resilience. What do you think will get the title as the 2024 WRC Champion? Will Neuville hold onto his lead, or will Tänak pull off a stunning upset? One thing’s for sure: it will be the most exciting event of the season!🫣🙌🏻