Where to for Gold?

drewkin(41)
Published in
#gold
Words
264
Reading
2 min
Listen
Play
8y

Gold10apr.jpg

It’s possible to argue that Gold is in a descending triangle https://goo.gl/GE8XAm with support at $1309.50/oz and a descending series of highs (1364, 1360, 1356). But there are other factors at play than pure technical analysis.
What we tend to see on descending triangles is a breakout at some point, if this is true we need to decide which direction is most likely. Having a look at the historical prices of Gold is a good start.

GoldHistorical.jpg
Historical Prices of Gold Source: https://goo.gl/n46Kgf

The fundamental analysis of Gold suggests that it is a risk-off asset. Being a good store of value, people tend to invest in Gold when they are concerned with investments elsewhere. For example, look back at the rapid price increase in Gold when Nth Korea fired a missile over Japan, last year. One of the recent movers of Gold has been the threat of a trade war between China and the US. So how does the price of Gold look when tracked by US President?

GoldbyPres.jpg
Gold Prices by President Source: https://goo.gl/nMs6fg

Gold is up 9.7% so far for the Trump Presidency. But classic Trump brinkmanship may be paying off with President Xi blinking first and seeming to concede on negotiating a better trade deal with the US. Xi’s speech highlights: https://goo.gl/gtuy12 (Subscription required) During the speech Gold could be seen losing value as equites rallied.

Gold has been easy to trade the last few weeks, but if that range is narrowing traders needs to be prepared for market movements outside of support and resistance. The next item to look at is Trump’s response to Xi’s speech.