Hi @crypto.piotr

Always great to hear from you man.

I was under the impression that TA is a farce. I still believe it to this day because its focus is short term. However, long term is a different story.

I did not get my info, from the media or some moron on youtube trying to play people but from the price itself. I've updated the second cycle (peak to peak) and it shows an almost perfect parabola over a period of three years (see image below). That's if you get red of the fluff such as the factors you speak of which in short term skews away from the trend.

I simplified the trends (on the down and on the up) as seen in the image below.

All I did in the post was to overlay the current cycle on top of the 2nd cycle (2nd cycle was the previous one where we peeked in 2017).

You will see that in some of my posts I state that the trend I present is only based on the data and it neglects the effect of increasing popularity of crypto so I like to believe it is the lower limit :-)

If we did not have the hash wars and Tether pump during this cycle we would have priced another perfect parabola (even better than the previous cycle). The below image probably explains it best. The transparent blue line is the previous cycle price and the dark orange line is our current pricing action. You can see that we always return to the trend line.

I agree with you that short term price prediction can only be correctly predicted on a consistent bases by people that have massive stacks of money but long term we are bound by the trends and as you can see we are right on the trend line.