I'm working off of #1, across the world.
Reading your post and opening one of these tools - I guess I could say- "fateful" in a way. I've been trying a range of perspectives since.

Anyone can(maybe should) load this page/tool and see the graph- lower right corner first. It's interesting how all three metrics; Mainland China, "Others" and Recoveries all crossed paths at once very recently. The following "explosion" of cases (I'm sure that more aggressive testing factors in too) might lead somewhere too.