Every summer, you always hear the same thing if you hang around trading groups that crypto is dead, or nothing is moving.
Right now, with bitcoin above $100,000, people who expect wild swings are getting a little restless. It’s actually strange to see such a quiet stretch at these price levels, but that’s the scene. You can call it boring but you have to look at what it means.
If you like big profits and fast P&L changes, you’re probably frustrated now because the realized and implied volatility numbers have both dropped even while bitcoin keeps breaking new highs. In previous years, every time bitcoin ran up like this the swings were bigger and more unpredictable. Now, with global politics shaking traditional markets, bitcoin just shrugs and moves sideways. It’s almost like the market has matured, at least on the surface.
There’s more demand from companies holding bitcoin in their treasuries, and options traders are using strategies that actually suppress price moves, things like overwriting and selling volatility. The big shock events that used to send prices flying (think FTX blowup) are missing, so nothing really shakes the market for long.
But because things are so calm, the cost to buy options for both upside and downside is a lot lower than usual.
If you think there’s a major catalyst on the horizon, you can take a position now without paying much for protection or potential upside. SEC decisions, new regulations, or anything else unexpected could bring back the chaos, but you have to be in before it happens.
So, if you’re trading bitcoin right now and you know how to use options, this isn’t a dead zone at all. It’s just a waiting period, and the patient are going to be rewarded when the next big move hits.
If you think nothing is happening, you’re not looking in the right place.
