Last season I posted my weekly results for the first 7 weeks of the NFL season. Due to doing so well, I decided to stop -- my blog turned into a never ending brag post. So this season a combination of not wanting to brag and a lack of a reliable tracker site to upload results combined to prevent me from writing about DFS. DFS is time consuming, and since I'm not blogging about it, I end up not blogging about much. So I decided instead of posting outright results or nothing at all, I'll post my main lineups on each site, and my thoughts on whether an alternative lineup was a better choice.
This was a tough week to make lineups on Draftkings because there were no standout WR plays. I was looking at 3 QBs going into the day: Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, and Brian Hoyer. About two hours before lock, I checked out each of their teams and the Rodgers teams were highest projected, Dak close behind, and Hoyer about 4 points back, so I basically dismissed Hoyer as a play for the day. I continued working on projections and by the time I finished the Dak lineup was best and my favorite Rodgers was only .3 points back, so I ran those two. When I checked later on, the best Hoyer lineup was only another .2 back from my Rodgers lineup. Not only that, but it avoided Terrance Williams, a player I would have preferred not having:
QBBrian Hoyer@ IND13.815.384700
RBLe'Veon Bellvs JAC23.926.589500
RBMelvin Gordon@ NYG13.917.476000
WRDez Bryantvs GB15.816.486500
WRJarvis Landryvs TEN15.014.405800
WRRicardo Louisvs NYJ3.99.773700
TEAustin Seferian-Jenkins@ CLE6.99.663500
FLEXTodd Gurleyvs SEA16.722.828000
DSTCardinals@ PHI8.96.302300
I think this lineup was a better choice as my 2nd lineup than the Rodgers. For one, Hoyer/Dez/Landry were going to be popular plays, while Rodgers wasn't. Also, I'm not really afraid of fading Terrance Williams at low ownership, while I was a bit terrified of fading Dez Bryant completely. Other than how much it gave up 2 hours before lock, my original aversion to this lineup was playing Cardinals D: I thought I possibly had Eagles D underprojected, possibly had Cardinals D overprojected, and thought it was possible Cardinals D got blown out of the water. But I could look at Dez vs Terrance Williams the same way, and I really should have locked Hoyer and checked how far back he was. I only noticed he wasn't in the top 20 lineups and rushed along to the next slate/site.
The only other player that was highly owned that I didn't have was TY Hilton. He just didn't seem to fit too well into lineups: Jarvis was projected similar for $200 cheaper, and that $200 was hard to free up because Eagles D was so strong. My friend decided to play some Hilton/Dolphins over Jarvis/Eagles, which I originally thought was a mistake, but honestly, with the variance in NFL, things like that end up basically a flip, and reducing variance is generally the correct decision.
There were a handful of lineups I was considering. In fact, the top 15 were all within .25 of the top lineup! Thus, regardless of result (it was bad), going all in on one lineup was a mistake. The variance in NFL is too high to go with one lineup of potentially low owned players. Case in point on variance: both Travis Kelce and Devante Parker got injured today.
I thought Dak, LeVeon Bell, Gurley, and Jake Elliott were locks. At WR I liked Hopkins, Dez, Larry Fitz, Devante Parker, Rishard Matthews, and Jaron Brown. At TE I liked Kelce, Ertz, Charles Clay. And at defense I liked either Steelers, Eagles, or Dolphins. Naturally I ended up on the worst scoring defense and worst 3 scoring WRs of my preferences. But I have nobody to blame but myself for taking on more variance.
The benefit of hindsight is strong, but here are the lineups I believe I should have played as splits, alongside the one I did:
QBDak Prescottvs GB19.020.577700
RBLe'Veon Bellvs JAC20.222.699500
RBTodd Gurleyvs SEA14.719.267800
WRDez Bryantvs GB13.013.987800
WRDeVante Parkervs TEN9.311.796100
WRJaron Brown@ PHI4.09.144500
TETravis Kelce@ HOU10.211.597000
KJake Elliottvs ARI15.58.504700
DSTSteelersvs JAC7.68.604800
QBDak Prescottvs GB19.020.577700
RBLe'Veon Bellvs JAC20.222.699500
RBTodd Gurleyvs SEA14.719.267800
WRDeAndre Hopkinsvs KC13.113.887700
WRLarry Fitzgerald@ PHI11.812.756700
WRJaron Brown@ PHI4.09.144500
TEZach Ertzvs ARI9.010.756600
KJake Elliottvs ARI15.58.504700
DSTEaglesvs ARI9.08.404600
This would have granted me exposure to the plays I was targeting: some Ertz/Kelce, some Hopkins/Dez/Larry/Parker/Jaron, split Eagles/Steelers. This simply requires more preparation and time.
I didn't get much action on Yahoo this week, so just ran my optimal lineup. There were close alternatives (Dez vs Hopkins, Tate/Lamar vs Keenan/Latavius or Ameer), but this was the best lineup. It's not doing well, but happy with my choice of players, and my ability to separate results from process here makes me feel a little better about second guessing on DK/FD.
I had more action on FD2 than Yahoo, but still not much compared to DK/FD. But I loved my lineup there -- it was .23 back from optimal, but it had more chalky/popular plays than the slightly higher projected lineups. I pretty much thought all the regs would play Eagles Defense and ASJ, so my choice came down to two lineups: mine, or Jaron Brown+Latavius > Ricardo/Lamar. Ultimately I chose Lamar because more tout sites had Lamar as a better point per dollar play, but it was really close. Either choice did well, which speaks to the strength of my core set of players.
Will be a small losing week: win moderately on DK, lose big on FD, lose small on Yahoo, win moderate on FantasyDraft. Last season I think I had 15 winning weeks and 4 losing weeks. So far this season I've already had 4 losing weeks. The edges are getting thinner, and I've been very unlucky, but properly hedging in close spots should reduce variance some. Just have to know when the right time to all in a lineup is (luckily I did that last week on DK and had a big winning week), and when to split lineups between very close choices (this week when there are 15 lineups within .25 of each other).
My name is Ryan Daut and I am a professional gambler. My interests include dogs, poker, fantasy sports, football, basketball, MMA, health and fitness, rock climbing, mathematics, astrophysics, cryptocurrency, and computer gaming.
