Thanks!
For 2023, the first half is around 2.5%, so for the whole year, if things remains the same in the second half it will be 5%, that is still bellow the projected 6%. But, this is for the regular HIVE inflation, counting the HIVE in the DHF as well. If we monitor only the HIVE tokens outside the DHF, the available inflation for 2023 it is close to 9%. This is presented in the last chart of the post.

That's the APR we see in our wallet on staked hive or do I have that part wrong?

No, it is not. That APR is the share from the inflation that is allocated for staking/powering up, it is 15% of the overall inflation, so 6% * 15% = 0,9%, but in a scenario where all the HIVE is powered up. Since only 168M HIVE is powered up from the 404M, this increases to around 3%.