Elon Musk purchased Twitter for $44B last fall. Think about that. Forty-four billion dollars for an app that allows people to write little notes and post them on a message board. It's almost laughable that something so simple could be worth so much. Obviously there's a lot that goes into it behind the scenes to make it all work, but in a nutshell, that's what it is. Grandma can tell the world she forgot where she put her teeth, Jenny can tell everyone she hates oatmeal for breakfast, and Jimmy can "tweet" that he got a flat tire. All vital information to the world at large. Forty-four billion dollars. lol
It got me thinking about some numbers. @Khal posted this article/video yesterday talking about how $LEO hit a $1 last year with nothing even close to the tech behind it that we have now. And what we have now isn't even close to what we'll have within the next year. Everything is still being built and fleshed out at a rapid pace. It might not seem like it to those of us here every day, but it is. Don't believe me? Try turning this place off for a month or two and then try to catch up when you get back. You won't believe everything you will have missed.
Leo is three years old. It's still a baby.
BUT, as the title of this article says, we're going to have some fun with numbers. Let's just do some math.
Here is the "info" screen from LeoDex on LeoFinance. (Looks like they need to do some updating and add in LeoThreads and maybe LeoGlossary into the description.)
According to this, the Max Supply is 1B tokens, of which only 14.255M have been issued. Of those, 10M are staked. That means the "float" is only around 4M tokens. They're trading for roughly 6 cents right now.
So, just for the fun of it, lets play around with these.
- 4M tokens * $.06 = $240,000 This means that someone could take 11 Bitcoin and buy up every loose $LEO token on the market. Obviously that couldn't happen because the price would move up dramatically as someone tried to buy that many $Leo at once, but....again, let's think about what this means. How many do you think would really be needed to be taken off the market for the price to go to $1? 200k? 1M? I don't know, but it wouldn't be anywhere near the 4M I'm thinking. Granted, some people would sell on the way up so...again, just for the heck of it, let's say all four million need to be purchased for the price to go to $1. How much money would that actually take? A large chunk would be bought in the pennies and then it would take less and less tokens to move the price, but they'd cost more and more as the price went up. So let's use $2.5M of buying to take LEO to $1. Khal wants 5000 more MAUs (monthly active users) by the end of the year. Divide $2.5M by 5000 users and you come up with only $500 per new active user. $500 of buying per user to take LEO from 6 cents to $1. Interesting.
Now, factor in the fact that Khal believes that adding 5000 MAUs will 10x ad revenue, which will be used to buy LEO off the market. I don't know what the current ad revenue is every month but say 10x would be $50k a month (that's got to be somewhere in the neighborhood). That's $600k of buying over a years time. Obviously it won't jump to that overnight but...remember that first little equation (4M * $.06 = $240k)? We're talking about the ad revenue being able to buy 2.5 times the total amount of LEO tokens unstaked right now over a years time. Of course, those numbers apply to LEO at 6 cents. So what does that mean? Well, I'm no rocket scientist but it seems to me 6 cents is a pretty good price. lol
How about another equation?
- The total circulating supply of LEO right now is 14M. Let's just round up and make it 20M. 20M * $5 = $100M. At $5 per $LEO the "market cap" would be $100M. To put that in perspective, that would rank it right around 270th according to CoinGecko right now. In other words, nowhere near the top of the list. Not even the top 200. Having been in the crypto space for almost 6 years now, I can honestly say I haven't found very many cryptos even close to offering the utility and functionality that LeoFinance does right now, let alone in the future. Certainly not 269 of them. $100M is a drop in the ocean, not even a bucket. The amount of money that will be flowing into the crypto space over the next few years will be astronomical in my opinion. Especially with the next bull run on the horizon. $100M is nothing.
If LeoThreads adds the 5000 MAUs, #CUB flips deflationary, #PolyCUB joins it, and the blogging site continues to chug along, the "value" residing underneath the LeoFinance umbrella will be immense. And don't forget the ThorCUBs and AvalancheCUBs of the world either. Leo is not done there yet. If and when they get CUB figured out as a sustainable defi platform, there are 10 other chains they could take it to bridging them all to Leo and Hive and creating tremendous utility for LeoFinance as being the place to go for everything crypto.
But lets not get too far ahead of ourselves. You can see why it takes time for these things to develop. Each building block adds more value and allows more blocks to be stacked on top of it. But those blocks aren't linear. They're exponential. One leads to two which leads to four which leads to eight, etc. The growth in the beginning while you are putting the "cornerstones" in place can be slow and unwieldy. But once they're there, the growth that can be built on top of them can happen extremely quickly.
It reminds me of building a house. Have you ever seen a construction project where it takes weeks of people moving dirt and digging holes and surveying and measuring and finally pouring foundations, and then all of a sudden a week later there's an entire house standing on top of it? That's what's happening with LeoFinance right now. The past three plus years have been spent laying that foundation (and it's still ongoing), but we're starting to get to the point where the house may be able to be built on top of it.
Bears are for building and Khal & Co have been doing just that. LeoThreads is ready to make it's way into the world shortly when the new UI is released for full Alpha testing. There are still lots of growing pains that will need to be dealt with. Don't expect this thing to just come out and light the world on fire. But it might. I fully expect there to be some serious issues that will need to be overcome in the process, but Khal has proven time and time again that he's in it for the long haul and will do whatever it takes to correct whatever needs correcting and keep building.
Speaking of Khal, back to numbers again. I commented on his post about Bitcoin going to $110k by the end of 2024 and he responded.
Me:
Bitcoin at $110k would be great and all, but I'll take LEO at $11.0 if you don't mind. Or how about $110? It's only decimals and commas... #lfg 馃檪
Khal:
LFG
I think $1.1 is 99.9999% doable in the next bull cycle. $11 is definitely on the table if we can hit our MAU targets each quarter
Fun with numbers. This is obviously not financial advice.
To wrap it up, take Khal's posts about what is coming and how it will all feed into the LeoFinance umbrella, mix it with taskmaster's post about where we see LeoFinance being in another five years, and wrap it all up with my Fun with Numbers, and I think you can see the future is very, VERY bright. 馃槑
PS. Just for the hell of it...if $LEO gets to Twitters $44B valuation then it's $44 with every token issued. $440 with 100M which is seven times the number that's been issued over the last three years. Crazy. The only 100% real number we have right now is it costs less than 6 cents to buy a $LEO. Just sayin'...