With the rise of cryptocurrencies, youtube has become flooded with "experts" who know where the next big thing is. Unfortunately, I have been convinced to invest in things I now know to be unsavory. I have learned how to evaluate people's opinion while doing as little research as possible. You have to follow two simple rules.
Know the persons area of competence and level of competence.
Know the persons incentives.
To give you a simple example, I will apply these criterias to Warren Buffet's assessment of the crypto market. "I can say almost certainty that they will cone to a bad ending." "When it happens or how or anything else, I don't know." Before I get into analyzing, you have to note that Warren Buffet is only talking about the cryptocurrency craze, in other words, the cryptocurrency market.
Warren Buffet is at the highest level of competence when it comes to investing. He is at the top 0.1% if not higher. On the other hand he is like everyone else, maybe worse, when it comes to tech. Worse still, his experience makes him very bad at understanding new markets until he os forced to interact with them. He has a hammer, and he treats every market like a nail. This is not to say his knowledge of markets do not apply, it simply means it only applies up to the point where this market is like any other market in some fundamental way..
Warren Buffet has no crypto investment. He also doesn't think peopleel that dont invest in crypto will invest their money in some way to make hin money. As far as i know, he has no vested interest one way or the other.
So what does this mean? Warren Buffet is probably right about the crypto market in general, but not about any specific tech or project in crypto. So expect a huge drop in total market cap within the next 5 years.
