There was a stroke of inevitability about this match ever since Federer and Nadal were picked in the same side of the draw at Wimbledon. If there was ever a match the oldest tennis tournament in the world deserved to witness again it was this one and you can bet your bottom dollar every ticket holder was hoping it would come true. Tomorrow the world of tennis will be indulged with perhaps the most iconic and riveting match up the sport has ever seen and will most likely see again.
Source - Federer - Getty Images
We all know Nadal has the superior head to head, but of late Federer has been enjoying the greater success on all surfaces except clay (which no one expected Federer to win on). We can cast our minds back to the beginning of 2017 when Federer made his grand slam comeback at the Australian Open and his new aggressive style of play off the back hand got him over the line against the Spanish Bull - gone was the overly reliance on the slice defense which caught Nadal off guard. But with Nadal going from strength to strength this year, and even with it being Federer's favourite surface tomorrow, I can't help feel most people will be favouring the latter. Who can blame them, Nadal at times has looked unstoppable this year, especially in the slams. He has already made the US Open final, won Roland Garros and is now one match away from three final appearances in Grand Slams this year.
Even given Nadal's performances, you can't help but admire Federer's net play this Wimbledon tournament. He has been unforgiving in closing down opponents at the net, especially vs the young Italian. But none have had the sort of top spin and power Nadal possesses, none are capable of landing the ball at such a sharp descent over and below the net. Federer will need to bring something beyond his A game tomorrow to win, he will need to remind himself to keep tight to the baseline and play aggressive off his backhand if he wants a chance of winning. His slice may work against most, but too much reliance on that shot again and he will gift Nadal the opportunity to bully him from the back.
Bookies still have Nadal down as favourite to win, even on his least favourite surface. 1.72 to Federer's 2.10 odds.
Let's pull up the latest head to head results between the two...
As you can see since the showdown in Melbourne two years ago, Federer has really turned the tables on Nadal. Before that match it was 23 - 10 to Nadal. Now it's 24-15 to Nadal, with Federer winning 5 of their past 6 meetings. On hard courts Nadal has looked vulnerable to Federer's new way of dealing with his top spin. Can the Swiss Maestro continue his recent dominance on faster surfaces away from the orange dirt?
Federer is also 2-1 at Wimbledon vs Nadal but Nadal won their last meeting at SW19 way back in 2008. All three meetings between the two here have come in finals, two of which have gone the distance. Let's look back at the highlights between the two at Wimbledon below:
2006 Final: Federer: 6-0, 7-6, 6-7, 6-3
2007 Final: Federer: 7-6, 4-6, 7-6, 2-6, 6-2
2008 Final: Nadal: 6-4, 6-4, 6-7, 6-7, 9-7
I feel with Federer's recent results on hard surfaces vs Nadal, that may just be enough to give Federer the belief that he can continue his recent run and eat into Nadal's record further. I also feel he will want this trophy more than Nadal because Federer will know it's his best shot before retirement of winning another slam.
We must also factored in though that Nadal is four years younger than Federer and for every year that ticks by, Federer will feel it even more so playing at such a level. So expect to see Federer flying to the net and taking the short balls with greater urgency given Nadal's comfort level at the back.
I would much prefer to see a Federer vs Djokovic final than a Nadal vs Djokovic so perhaps I am slightly bias towards my pick here but I have to also look at those head to head results on a hard court, add in the fact this will be an even faster surface than all five the hard court tournaments and go with Federer at 2.10 given his recent performances in the lead up to this game - even vs Nishikori where he comfortably weathered an early storm to come back 3-1.
What does everyone else think, do you think it will go the distance to a full five set match tomorrow and do you think Federer has got what it takes at 37 to still beat Nadal?
