Novak Djokovic has made it his business to be the most immovable object known to the modern game of tennis. More so than even Rafa Nadal and Andy Murray, as the Serbian is known for his incredible flexibility and mobility while still remaining pretty much injury free. It's these long flexible legs coupled with excellent balance that has seen him make head way and drive a spear directly between the big 2 like no other player has managed to do. Now we know them as the big 3 thanks to his unique abilities on court.
Source - Getty Images - Novak Djokovic
But add to those defensive skills his own shot making ability and a backhand as stable as the best on tour and you have one stubborn mule who refuses to go away. Many wrote him off last year after his return from an elbow injury where at the French Open he crashed out to an unknown Italian. But back he came to claim the Wimbledon title before going on to win the US Open where he ruthlessly dispatched of Rafa Nadal in the final. If that achievement wasn't enough to convince you last year, he even claimed a Golden Masters (winning all the Masters 1000 Titles), something no other tennis player has managed to do in history.
Many call Djokovic the complete tennis player because he apparently has no weaknesses, even his serve has remarkably improved over the past year. Now he is landing more aces and scoring cheap points.
So what must Roger Federer do to overcome the reigning Wimbledon and US Open champion who has a 2-1 lead over Federer head to head at Wimbledon?
Source - Getty Images - Roger Federer
For me it starts by Federer sticking to his own game and not getting into too many dog fights from the back on a grass court just as he needed to avoid against Nadal. Djokovic is notorious for turning defense into attack by withstanding the opponents barrage of corner to corner shots. His play is rather simple to study, because his court coverage is so extensive he bides his time on when to counter, first absorbing what many assuming opponents think is going to be a winning shot and pushing the ball back deep before then turning his passive play into aggression when the short ball comes back. This is when Federer needs to be switched on to make a foray to the net, he can't afford to believe he will win today by hanging back, no matter how close to the baseline he stands, he's going to have to venture in more times than in any other match so far at Wimbledon to cut off that classic Djokovic play.
Of course Novak also possesses the capability of hitting the ball hard and flat when he needs to as well, it's his perfectly measured game that frustrates the best of players. To the unseeing eye it looks a little tedious at times but it's highly effective at winning matches and slams!
Source - Getty Images - Roger Federer
Taking the first set is more important for Federer than Djokovic for me. Given Federer has lost 8 of their last 10 encounters including their last three matches, it's important that he instils some self belief that he can overcome Novak over a 5 set encounter once more.
I think the Paris Masters 2018 Semi Final (the last game they played) can give us a clue as to how things can play out. In that match Federer conceded the first set and even though he was the one to win a set by a break of serve he capitulated in the tie break 7-3 in the third. That match saw Novak at his best, where he completely neutralised shots by Federer that any other player except Murray would not be able to return. Perhaps today he will be looking to close this match out 3-0 or 3-1 (being the more likely goal).
The last time they met in a Grand Slam event was the Semi Finals of the Australian Open 2016. There he went two sets behind in such quick fashion (6-1, 6-2) he never looked like truly recovering even when clawing one set back. Today he needs to come out of the blocks aggressive and unforgiving to establish an early foothold in the match. That will give him the confidence as it did against Nadal to press the advantage home of being on his favoured surface.
Today I am going for a Federer win at 2.6, these represent excellent outside odds.
