SpaceX debuted on the Nasdaq on June 12 to extraordinary demand. Against a $75 billion fundraising target, orders reached $250 billion. The stock priced at $135, opened at $150, and closed at $161.11 — a 19% first-day gain — pushing the market cap to $2.1 trillion. By any measure, one of the most anticipated listings in market history.
The numbers behind the company are harder to square with the valuation. SpaceX posted a $4.9 billion loss in 2025 and burned another $4.3 billion in Q1 2026. Of its three business lines — rocket launches, Starlink satellite services, and AI — only Starlink is currently profitable, with 10.3 million subscribers and roughly 10,000 satellites in orbit. The stock trades at around 100x revenues, a multiple that makes even Google and Meta's IPO valuations look modest by comparison.
Analyst targets range dramatically: New Street Research sees $165, implying upside from the offer price. Morningstar puts fair value at $63 — a 53% discount to IPO.
The historical data on IPOs adds another layer of caution. Research by economist Jay Ritter shows that US IPOs have underperformed the market by an average of 21% in the three years following listing. First-day gains tend to benefit those who got in at the offer price, not buyers in the open market.
What We Think
SpaceX's long-term potential is real — but the opening frenzy is exactly when patience tends to pay. Most analysts recommend waiting at least six months to see how cash burn, capital needs, and execution develop before taking a position.
