Whereas I am not a poker player, I am well familiar with the notion of variance, as I deal with it on eBay, all the time.

For almost 25 years, I periodically have auctions in much hobby niche (vintage paper collectibles), and the strategy is always the same: $0.99 starting bid, regardless of the item's actual market value. Variance comes into play because sometimes I do end up giving away a $20 item for 99 cents, and sometimes a more or less worthless item ends up selling for $20.

The point here being that the longer your time horizon, the more variance smooths out and loses relevance. The more attached you are to a single item (or it could be single day, in your case) the more variance can seem like a bugaboo.

I have reached the point where I really only care about the long term average: Am I coming out ahead, on a broader scale?

=^..=