With the crypto Fear/Greed index thoroughly entrenched in the "extreme fear" end of the spectrum for almost a month, I'd have to say that we are pretty solidly in Bear Market territory.
I would also have to say that it is pretty thoroughly established by now that there is one world of crypto called Bitcoin which operates all by itself, and then there's a second world of crypto called "everything else."
Well, maybe it's not everything else because I guess we should remove stablecoins from the equation because they're trying to do something completely different, but certainly everything else that is not a stablecoin.
My hat off to those punters — a few months back — who felt pretty certain that when things started dumping we would likely end up with five cent Hive. Five cent Hive is now not very far away!
I honestly have no idea whether there's a bottom in sight somewhere, or whether things are just going to keep dropping for a while. Similarly, I have no idea whether there's going to be a strong rebound followed by a bull market or whether we are just going to scrape along at a new lower level, in perpetuity.
It's a cold world, these days...
I'm not ready to dismiss the possibility that this is actually part of a greater learning process in which we come to understand and accept that the cryptosphere essentially just has room for maybe 15-20 major players, and everything is else is basically Mickey Mouse playground stuff. That particular scenario does not actually sound too strange to me. It also doesn't sound great as far as Hive goes, at least from an investment perspective.
We tend to scoff a lot at fiat currencies and their lack of accountability, but at least they give us the illusion of being backed up by something, whether it's economies or the good faith of an entire nation or something like that. Much of crypto is backed up by a little more than empty air. Even if it is accountable, empty air remains empty air. What gives it value? Accountability, by itself, does not have any tangible value.
Maybe this period of rough waters is an invitation to look forward towards a paradigm of crypto with a business plan. I can't help but think that projects that go to zero — or somewhere close — tend to be the ones that approach their project from the perspective that the token is the end product. If we instead look at it from the perspective that some good, service, asset or other provision is the product and the associated crypto is merely the vehicle to make that product work, aren't we going to be better off?
If we consider the legacy stock market for a moment, let us be reminded that when we own the shares of common stock in some company we're actually owning shares of a company's assets, and while our shares may decline in value on a poor result... ultimately we still own a share of inventory and plant and patents and whatever else you have. With most crypto you own absolutely nothing. I find myself pondering the question of how that is possibly an improvement from the legacy system.
I have been watching, with some interest, the rising trend of crypto that is tied to real world assets (RWA). Is this kind of hybrid situation where the future lies?
I may be in the minority here, but I am glad I am among those who never really viewed Hive and its various offshoots as anything more than a content creation venue that happened to have a crypto token attached to it.
In the rare moments when I do have time to create a blog post I'm glad this community is here as a place to share some thoughts, but I'm certainly not going to bet my retirement on this place!
But it's still an enjoyable way to spend a little time, and (for my money) 1,000x better than the meaningless drivel of TikTok!
Thanks for coming to visit!
