In the week from September 26 to October 2, the BTC/USDt pair remained sideways in a limited range of $18,500 – $20,400. Buyers made two attempts to break through the trend line (originates from the top of $69,000), but both were unsuccessful.
US stocks ended the week in the red. A logical question arises: If the indices fell, then why did the cryptocurrency not fall in price? This week, the cryptocurrency was saved by a downward correction in the dollar index. Due to the unidirectional dynamics of the S&P500 and DXY, the BTC/USDt pair remained in a sideways trend above $18,000.
On Friday (September 30), the S&P500 fell 2.91% to 3585.61 points. In September, the index losses amounted to 9.34%, for the 3rd quarter - 5.28%. The dollar index fell 0.75% to 112.17 points. In September, it grew by 3.21%, in the 3rd quarter - by 7.10%. Bitcoin fell by 3.13% over the month, by 2.61% over the 3rd quarter.
The indices continued their negative dynamics. The main factor of pressure on risky assets continues to be the expectation of further actions by the leading Central Banks in the fight against inflation. Investors fear a recession.
This week, the Bank of England decided to postpone its balance sheet reduction program, switching to bond purchases to stabilize the debt market. This allowed the indices and bitcoin to recover to $20185.
The week from October 3 to 10 is expected to be volatile for all markets due to the dense block of US statistics. On Monday there will be a report with data on business activity in the manufacturing sector for September, on Tuesday - data on the volume of industrial orders, on Wednesday - data on business activity in the services sector.
The key indicator of the week will be Friday's report on the labor market in the US. It is important for the US Federal Reserve, so they are looking forward to it.
Buyers defend the $18,000-$19,000 support zone. In the 4th quarter, I expect a rebound in the S&P500 index and bitcoin based on seasonal cycles. On the weekly timeframe, the S&P500 index gained a good rate of decline, so it will take at least two weeks for a reversal. A reversal pattern is needed on the daily time frame.
Bitcoin trading on weekends is calm. If we expect sharp movements, then from the opening of the Asian session. In China, a public holiday is from October 1st to 7th. Accordingly, other indices of the Asian region, as well as futures on the S&P500, will set the pace for the markets.