On Friday, October 7th, Bitcoin fell 2.16% to $19,530. The key event for all markets was the US labor market report for September. After the release of the statistical data, the American dollar rose against the major currencies. Stock indices sank seriously, losing all weekly profits. The S&P500 fell 2.81%, the Nasdaq fell 3.80%.
According to the latest data from the Department of Labor, the US economy added 263 thousand jobs in September against 315 thousand in August (the forecast was 250 thousand). July data has been revised upward by 11,000 to 537,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7% in August. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% (unchanged), year-on-year amounted to 5% (decreased slightly).
For me, the data is neutral. I have been following them since 2002 and I know what deviations cause sharp price fluctuations. These were in line with market expectations, but market participants saw them as the Fed's aggressive monetary tightening and continued aggressive rate hikes.
According to the CME, the probability of a 75 basis point rate hike on November 2 rose to 81.1% from 56.5% on September 30. Up 75 bp already included in the price. The reaction should be weaker.
On Monday, October 10th, Columbus Day is celebrated in the United States. The stock market is open, but the bond market will be closed. Probably, this could provoke a sharp decline in the indices and the growth of the dollar index. Now the focus of investors has shifted to inflation data, which will cause sharp fluctuations in all markets on October 13th.
The market closes lower for four days in a row. The last two days the volumes have fallen. It is very interesting to see the market open on Monday as the technical picture is still bullish. Nothing has changed in my cyclical analysis. They look up and indicate a correction in risky assets. Apparently, now the activity of buyers is low due to the upcoming inflation report. It was not possible to break through immediately, we will have to develop the upward movement from the beginning.