Hourly TF future for cue ball on Binance. On it we see how the sellers broke the stops on Friday. Above $18,950, the sellers' stops and the opening of long positions were already triggered. The correction is sideways after the growth, so 19400-19500 can be tested in the early morning.
The week from October 17 to 23 began with the strengthening of bitcoin, but since Tuesday, buyers began to retreat following the decline in stock indices and the resumption of growth in the dollar index.
On Friday, October 21, BTC/USDt rose 0.64% to $19,164. The minimum was fixed at $18,650. The S&P500 rose 2.42%, the Nasdaq index rose 2.31%. Now everything is in order.
On Friday, since the opening of the American session, the S & P500 index updated the minimum from which there was a sharp rebound. The bitcoin exchange rate at the moment fell to $18650 and returned to the level of $19250. The reversal of risky assets was caused by an article in the Wall Street Journal. Some Fed officials have begun to talk about wanting to slow down the pace of rate hikes.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reaffirmed those expectations, saying it was time to start talking about slowing down the pace of borrowing cost hikes, and this needed to be done to avoid the economy falling into recession due to too sharp interest rate hikes.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that the Fed should bring the monetary policy rate slightly above 4.5% by the beginning of next year and keep it at this level for some period.
There were hopes for a less aggressive approach by the Fed to tighten monetary policy in December. In November, the market takes into account the rate increase by 75 bp, up to 4% per annum with a probability of 95%. The probability of a rate hike by 75 bp also decreased to 4% in December to 45.6% from 69.8%. Those. the market is again expecting a 50 bp rate hike in December.
In one day, the S&P500 and Nasdaq indices covered a two-day fall in one day. Over the weekend, the BTC/USDt pair was spinning around the $19,150 level. The ETH/USDt pair rose to $1320. There are no cardinal changes on the daily TF. On Friday, another pinbar formed. If trading opens on Monday with a fall in futures for US indices, then we will again fall to the $18,200 area.
Bitcoin has been stuck in a flat since the summer and it looks like it will continue until investors can confidently believe that the Fed will stop raising rates. Monday and Tuesday are two important days for bitcoin. On the daily time frame we have 2 fractals. The first is at a low of $18,650, the second is at a high of $19,707. When expanding the range, similar fractals are at the levels of $18,190 and $19,952. To break the protective stops of sellers, buyers need to gain a foothold above $20,000. And the faster 20500 passes, the higher the probability of recovery to the $21400-$21750 zone. I will make a daily chart on Monday closer to 10 GMT+3. I want to see the opening of the market.
From American statistics, I highlight: two reports on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector for October. The 2nd estimate of US GDP for the 2nd quarter will also be released. If the value is revised strongly, then we expect sharp price fluctuations. Another interest will be the price index of personal consumption expenditures for the 3rd quarter.