Investors sum up the results for June, the 2nd quarter and the first half of 2022. In June, bitcoin fell in price against the dollar by 37.29%, in the 2nd quarter - by 56.18%, in six months - by 56.85%. The market capitalization of cryptocurrencies over the past three months has decreased to $854 billion from $2.260 trillion. Q2 was the worst since 2011.
The drawdown of the first cryptocurrency was caused by a flight from risky assets amid tightening monetary policy, as well as the collapse of two related cryptocurrencies Terra USD and Luna. The market crash attracted the attention of regulators. The market has come under tougher regulations due to risky investments.
On June 18, the bitcoin rate fell to $17,622 (according to the Binance exchange). Sellers updated the low in the thin market amid falling S&P500 and Nasdaq stock indices. Investors sold off US stocks after the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 percentage points at once, the biggest jump since 1994. The sharp rate hike raised fears of a recession in the US.
On Friday, July 1, Bitcoin fell 3.32% to $19,279, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 1.06% and 0.90%, respectively. Since the indices closed in positive territory, buyers should control the weekend. On Saturday, July 2, the price was trading in a narrow range. On Sunday, July 3, Bitcoin is trading at $19,200, down 72% from its all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021.
Finding the price below $20,000 has a bad effect on the mood of buyers. The situation remains tense, so they are in a depressed state. Their low activity could lead to another 30% drop to $14,500-$15,000. The market is thin, so the sellers are waiting for the moment to push the price.
The mood may change quarterly reports of US companies for the 2nd quarter. If they are not as deplorable as expected, the stock indices will continue to correct. Since the recession is partly priced in, the rebound could be sharp. The deterrent for risky assets is the FOMC meeting scheduled for July 27th. Rate futures point to a 75 percentage point hike to 2.25-2.50% with an 82.6% chance.
For the BTC/USDt pair, the first resistance is the $23,500 level. To develop a correction to the $28,000 area, it is necessary to fix above the $24,500 level. The only thing is that there are no fundamental data and news that can bring buyers back to the market. Many traders and investors have entered stablecoins, taking a wait-and-see attitude and watching the market from the sidelines.
