Bitcoin fell a bit last week, getting rejected by the 50 Week EMA and pulling back to around $31K over the weekend. Bitcoin is off to a weak start to this week as it drifts ever-lower to just above $30K. If this doesn't hold, look for a swift drop to the low $20Ks as there's no significant support until $20K region.
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(June 27, 2021 8:30PM EST)
Bitcoin is forming an ugly pattern on the chart right now as it continues to get rejected by resistance levels and looks just about ready to roll over. A break below $30K would likely send BTC to around the $20K region which is the previous cycle's ATH, where there should be ample buying pressure. This is ultimately our line in the sand; if $20K holds, we can bounce and start grinding back higher. If BTC breaks lower than $20K, then it will have retraced nearly the entire bull market rally thus far and we may be in a market purgatory for months if not a couple years. I lean much heavier towards the former scenario.
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If we test $20K, I expect the buyers to step in and BTFD, especially institutional investors who have been waiting for more of a value entry position. Remember, it takes months (if not longer) for institutions to get compliance and finance approval to take new (and large) positions, especially into a new asset class. Saylor's friends and acquaintances could very well step in here and buy up a ton of BTC on the cheap: we already know retail has been and will continue to do so. If and I think it's more of a matter of when $30K breaks, I expect a violent bearish candle to $20K that results in an abrupt bounce back up to $30K or higher which should kickstart the next leg of the bull market rally.
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There's simply too much bullishness in the space for BTC to prematurely enter another bear market. Demand is higher than ever--and growing. Supply is low--and decreasing. There are more and new ways for new investors and users to buy Bitcoin and crypto than ever before--and growing. Simply put, the fundamentals are extremely bullish and becoming ever-more bullish. While short-term price action is volatile, over the medium-long-term, this should be reflected in the price. I, as well as many others still very much expect BTC price to be well above $65K no later than Q4 2021.
BTFD. Fundamentals have not changed. By nearly every measure, we have not gotten anywhere near a market cycle top; in fact, we are maybe halfway through this bull market. What do you do during bull markets? Buy. The. Dip.
Support: $30K, then 78.6% fib at $21,679.
Resistance: 50 Week EMA at $33.5K, then $35K, $40K.
