That Bruno Fernandes breakdown is brutal but fair — four goal involvements in one match and virtually nothing else says everything about how streaky he's been. The buy-low-sell-high approach on him makes a lot of sense given how his price reacts to one big haul.

Calvert-Lewin and Gibbs-White both stand out to me as the safer picks here — form and fixtures lining up together is usually the strongest signal in this game. Haaland feels like the highest variance pick of the bunch given how quiet his start has been outside that one City hot streak.