Solid breakdown on both matches. The Anderlecht numbers stand out most — underperforming their xG by 9 chances created to only 4 goals in 6 matches is a real gap between process and results, and with three defenders out, that's a lot to overcome against a squad worth over 4x more.

The Union situation makes sense too. Losing Mac Allister on top of an already thinned-out backline while the market is still pricing them as last season's defensive powerhouse is exactly the kind of value gap worth exploiting.