Is Wagner Preparing to Attack Ukraine From Belarusian Border?

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After Wagner's dramatic coup attempt came to an abruptly end, the Kremlin claimed that Wagner troops had two options, either fold into the regular Russian Army or follow their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin into Belarus. This sparked some anxiety in both Poland and Ukraine. On Monday, Poland deployed counterterrorism police to the Belarusian border, and a Ukrainian official told the economist last month that they'd redeployed troops to the North in anticipation of a Wagner led offensive from Belarus. So in this article, we're going to have a look at Wagner's new set up in Belarus and whether they could open up a new northern front in Ukraine. Hint: the answer is probably no.

When we talk about Wagner attacking Ukraine from Belarus there are two things we could mean here. The first is a theory advanced by the more conspiratorial corners of the internet, that last month's coup was actually organized by Russia and the Kremlin as a four dimensional chess move to redeploy Wagner troops to Belarus without Ukraine noticing and then open up a whole new front in Northern Ukraine while Ukraine is celebrating the attempted coup. This is very, very unlikely to be true, not least because Putin clearly isn't a master strategist, but also because he s the incentives just don't line up. Putin has spent the past 18 months trying his best to hide the war from the Russian public, which is why he calls it a special military operation and has resisted going for a general mobilisation. Why would he then stage an attempted coup involving a convoy of heavy, armoured clunking down a public motorway towards Moscow, given that the whole affair will have made the war feel more real than ever to ordinary Russians?

However, the second thing we could mean here is that Wagner could independently decide to attack Ukraine from Belarus. Assuming that Kiev doesn't buy the idea that the coup was staged by Russia, this is probably what Ukraine are worried about and why they deployed more troops to the North. But while this might be more likely than the staged coup conspiracy theory it still seems improbable for three reasons. First, it's not even clear that Wagner's contingent in Belarus has enough firepower to stage a real offensive. While the Kremlin announced the terms of a deal between Putin and Prigozhin a couple of weeks ago they seem to imply that Wagner troops had only two choices, either join the regular Russian Army or follow Prigozhin to exile in Belarus. Given that Prigozhin had claimed to be supported by 25,000 troops in his coup, this seemed to imply that Wagner would have a similar number of troops in Belarus. After all it's hard to imagine many Wagner troops folding into the regular Russian Army, given the dire state of relations between Wagner and regular Russian forces. Their apparent loyalty to Prigozhin and the fact that Wagner troops especially those stationed abroad are significantly better paid than regular Russian troops. This would have been a real danger to Ukraine. 25,000 troops is enough to stage a full on offensive, especially if they're supported by Belarus.

However, it looks like Prigozhin has somehow found a way out of the deal and in the past few days it's become clear that Wagner is still operating out of their main base in Molkin, a town in Russia's Krasnodur district. This first became apparent last week when a Russian journalist called Wagner pretending that he wanted to sign up and the Wagner recruiter confirmed that they were still operating out of Molkin. But was confirmed by Wagner's Telegram channel on Monday when they released adverts for job openings in Molkin. In a call with a Financial Times journalist a Wagner recruiter admitted that the recruitment process had become more difficult but that Wagner was still mainly based in Russia and insisted that there was no plans to fold them into the regular Russian military as required by the deal. While there is a Wagner contingent in Belarus based in Ossipovitche, a town about 100 kilometres Southeast of Minsk, it doesn't look like there were that many troops there and report suggests they had to give up all their heavy weaponry as part of the deal so it's hard to believe that there are enough troops there to open up a new front.

Second, any offensive would almost definitely require Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's explicit approval, and this seems unlikely. Since the war in Ukraine began, Lukashenko has had to walk a delicate tightrope. While he's a close ally of Putin's and in many ways dependent on the Russian President he knows that there isn't popular support amongst Belarusians for an invasion of Ukraine and any attempt to mobilize would threaten his grip on power. There were even reports at the beginning of the war that Lukashenko tried to send troops to Ukraine, but senior figures in the Belarusian military refused to participate. Putin has apparently tried to pressure Lukashenko into getting involved in Ukraine multiple times but while he's helped out a bit with logistics, Lukashenko has so far resisted deploying Belarusian troops. If Lukashenko has said no to Putin he's very unlikely to say yes to Prigozhin and without Lukashenko's consent or support, any Wagner offensive would really struggle.

Third, we've seen this thing before. Every couple of months, there were rumours about a new offensive coming from Belarus. In February of last year, for example, Belarusian troops lined up on the Ukrainian border sparking some anxiety in Kiev about the possibility of a second front with Belarus in the north. In March, Lukashenko said his country would need to respond to what he described as Ukrainian provocations. In July, Lukashenko deployed troops on the Ukrainian border after claiming that Ukraine had fired missiles at Belarusian military posts and that NATO was planning to annex Belarusian border territories and in October, he announced the formation of a joint regional grouping of forces or RGF between Belarusian and Russian troops. But every time, nothing happens. This is in part because as I mentioned earlier Lukashenko knows that there's little appetite for war with Ukraine within Belarus but also because a northern offensive would be really difficult. When you just look at a map of Ukraine, it looks like a great idea from Russia's perspective. The bulk of Ukraine's forces are tied up in the Eastern South, and it would only take a quick 80 km advance down the Dniepro River to reach Kiev.

However, in reality, the terrain along the Belarus Ukrainian border is a thick swamp with lots of water and very few roads. It's a horrible place to conduct an offensive operation and Ukraine has been monitoring the area with drones for the past few months which means any attacking force wouldn't even have the advantage of surprise. All in all, a new offensive from Belarus looks incredibly unlikely especially given the bulk of Wagner's troops are still apparently operating out of Russia.