Earthquake Activity:
In the last three days we have seen HIGH seismic activity across the world, with a total of 18 earthquakes at or above M5.0, and three M6.0+ quakes; a M6.0 quake near Fiji, a M6.0 southeast of New Zealand, and a M6.1 quake in northern Afghanistan. This represents a major increase in seismic activity since the last update.
A total of 12 DEEP earthquakes have been recorded the past three days, which is a major increase since the last update, and is ABOVE AVERAGE.
We are in a time of seismic unrest, so stay alert, prepared, and aware of what is happening in your area.
Swarms: Major swarms continue in the Gulf of Alaska, southern Mexico, and New Zealand. Swarms are now increasing in central and southern California, as was forecasted.
· So far, we have seen a total of 465 aftershocks from the M8.0 [M7.9] earthquake that struck off the coast of Kodiak Island, Alaska, on January 20th. The highest magnitude over the past three days has been M5.1. This on-going swarm will continue pushing seismic pressure down the west coast of Canada and the U.S. for at least another week, if not longer.
· A new swarm of micro-quakes in now occurring at Mount Saint Helens, in Washington, just as expected and forecasted. Mt. Rainier has also had a few quakes over the past few days, as expected and forecasted. Magnitudes have remained low, so far.
· Over the past three days, 60 quakes have struck in and off the coast of southern Mexico, ranging from M3.3-4.4. This is an increase in numbers since the last update.
· There have been a total of 83 quakes in and around New Zealand in the past 48 hours. The highest magnitude has been a M4.7 quake, striking near the Kermadec Islands. This is a substantial decrease in the numbers of quakes since the last update.
Pacific Northwest Slow-Slip Event Update:
The slow-slip event in the Pacific Northwest continues now for over one year – the longest ever in the region since scientists began tracking such events. The largest cluster of tremors has been around Olympia, Washington, but is now much more dispersed. The numbers of tremors have substantially decreased over the past week. When the tremors stop for 48-72 hours, then the WARNING will be issued for a potential M8.4-9.1 mega-quake to occur. This may be the largest earthquake to strike anywhere in the U.S. in the last 300+ years or more! It will likely be very large and destructive. The area is many years overdue for a large earthquake to strike. Time will tell.
While I believe the highest likelihood for a large quake is within a few days after the tremors stop, it is possible a large quake could strike before there is an expected lull. So, have an earthquake plan, your gear on hand, and know what to do if you are living on the west coast, especially in the warned zones. You can monitor these on-going tremors in real time here: http://tunk.ess.washington.edu/REALTIME/
A slow-slip event is also occurring in southern California, on the Anza Gap, along the southern San Andreas fault, down through Salton Sea. The swarm here has increased significantly in the last two days, as was forecasted. Almost all of the west coast of the U.S. is now affected by these two slow-slip events, and is primed for a major quake.
Yellowstone Status:
The Yellowstone region remains active. Magnitudes in the past three days have reached a high of M3.4.
Ghost Quakes:
[These are quakes that USGS fails to report or deletes from the public feeds after briefly reporting them. Usually these quakes are heavily censored for political or other non-scientific reasons.]
· A M3.0 quake struck on the northern border of New York on January 29th, exactly as I had forecasted. USGS decides not to report the quake. At least USGS is consistent with their weekly standard operating procedure blunders.
WATCHES & WARNINGS: (imminent threats for large earthquakes or tsunamis)
· A new WARNING has been issued for the next 3-5 days for a potential M4.7-5.4 quake to strike the west coast of California, from San Francisco Bay south to Santa Barbara and north Los Angeles. We may see more than one strike in this magnitude range. There is a lesser possibility we could also see a strike to the south of this line, from Los Angeles down to Salton Sea.
· I have issued a new WARNING for the next 3-5 days for a M6.4-7.4 earthquake to strike in central Iran. At this magnitude range, there will be extensive structural damage, injuries, and deaths in populated areas.
· A new WARNING is now issued for central Chile in Bio Bio province, south of Santiago, for a potential M6.4-7.4 quake to strike in the next 3-5 days. At this magnitude range, there will be moderate to major structural damage, injuries, and possible deaths.
· An extended WATCH is now in place for the next 30 days for the eastern Caribbean, including Haiti, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands for a potential M6.4-7.4 (revised upward) quake. This is a long-range forecast, and with a time frame that is not typical for my forecasts.
· A continuous WATCH remains in place for the Pacific Northwest, along and west of Highway 5, including the cities of Vancouver, Victoria, Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Salem, Eugene, Grants Pass, Medford, as far south as Redding, CA, especially along the coast. This is an on-going slow-slip event, and when it eventually quiets down, we will watch for a potential catastrophic quake in the M8.4-9.1 range to occur, most likely off the coast. An earthquake striking off-shore in this forecasted magnitude range will cause a tsunami, which will have as much or more effect than the devastating damage of the quake itself.
QUAKE REPORTS: (new earthquakes occurring since the last Quake Update)
USA – M2.5 and greater earthquakes Directional portion of the state indicated in ( ).
Magnitude Location
ALASKA:
Aftershocks continue from the M8.0 quake that struck off the southwestern coast of Kodiak Island, Alaska. The highest magnitude aftershock over the past three days has been M5.4 [M5.1].
M3.5 Alaska Peninsula (S)
M3.5 Kodiak Island (S)
M2.5 NW of Anchorage (S)
CALIFORNIA:
M4.3 Off-coast of Eureka, CA (NW)
[This quake was heavily downgraded, and is closer to M4.8 according to the seismogram readings.]
M3.0 SW of Anza (S)
M2.6 NW of Reno, Nevada (NE)
M2.6 NW of San Luis Obispo (C)
M2.6 West of Anza (S)
M2.6, M2.6 South of Salton Sea (S)
M2.5 East of Coalinga (C)
M2.5 SE of Eureka (N)
M2.5 SE of Hollister (C)
OKLAHOMA:
M2.6 West of Perry (N)
M2.5 NW of Blackwell (N)
OTHER U.S. & NEARBY REGIONS:
· Oregon M5.5 Off coast (W)
This quake occurred a few days ago. USGS finally decided several days late to upgrade it from the M4.9 they originally reported. This is a rare correction on their part. I had forecasted a M5.7+ quake off the coast of Oregon, and this fulfills that forecast. I thought I had missed it, but I didn’t!
· Virgin Islands M3.8 Northeast of Virgin Islands (NE)
· Wyoming M3.4 South of Jackson (W)
· Puerto Rico M3.3, M3.3, M3.1, M3.1 Off-coast Puerto Rico (N)
· New Mexico M2.7 NE border with Colorado (NE)
· Nevada M2.6 North of Battle Mountain (N)
· Idaho M2.7, M2.6 SW of Challis (C)
· Hawaii M2.5, M2.5 Island of Hawaii (S)
International – M4.9 and greater earthquakes
.
· A M6.1 quake struck in the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan.
· A M6.0 quake struck in Fiji. Was it deep or shallow? USGS fails to tell us.
· M6.0 and M5.2 quakes struck the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge, southeast of New Zealand.
· A M5.8 quake struck in Papua New Guinea, as was forecasted.
· M5.7 and M5.1 quakes struck south of Panama, north of Ecuador, as was forecasted.
· A M5.5 quake struck in the Molucca Sea of eastern Indonesia.
· A M5.4 quake struck on the Pacific-Antarctica plate.
· M5.3 and M5.1 quakes struck near the Solomon Islands.
· A M5.2 quake struck in San Juan, Argentina.
· A M5.2 quake struck in southeast of Quito, Ecuador.
· M5.2 and M4.9 quakes struck near Fiji.
· A rare M5.1 struck several hundred miles southwest of Hawaii, in the Pacific.
· A M5.1 quake struck southwest of Iceland, on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.
· A M5.1 quake struck the southeast Indian Ridge.
· A M5.0 quake struck near the coast of northern Peru.
· A M5.0 quake struck in Pakistan.
· A M4.9 quake struck north of Svalbard, near the North Pole. This area has been struck with several quakes in the range of M4.4-4.9 the past week, as was forecasted. This part of the world is not struck with earthquakes often.
· A M4.9 quake struck offshore Bio-Bio, Chile.
· A M4.9 quake struck near Tonga, in the South Pacific.
· A DEEP M4.9 quake struck south of Fiji, at the depth of 563 km.
· A M4.9 quake struck east of the island of East Timor, Indonesia.
SEISMICALLY ACTIVE AREAS: (highest magnitudes reported since the last update)
USA - including U.S. territories
· Alaska Active; magnitudes to M5.1.
· Northern California Active; magnitudes to M2.5.
· Southern California On-going swarms; magnitudes to M2.6.
· Yellowstone region Active; magnitudes to M2.7.
· Nevada Active; magnitudes to M2.6.
· Northern Oklahoma Active; magnitudes to M2.5.
· New Madrid, Missouri region Quiet.
· Hawaii Active; magnitudes below M2.5.
· Caribbean region Active; magnitudes to M3.2.
· Guam/Mariana Islands region Quiet.
International
· Southern Mexico Active; magnitudes to M4.4.
· Northern Chile Active; magnitudes to M4.1.
· Central Chile Active; magnitudes to M4.9.
· Iran Active; magnitudes to M4.2.
· Turkey Active; magnitudes to M3.4.
· Greece Active; magnitudes to M3.4.
· Italy Active; magnitudes to M2.9.
· Romania Active; magnitudes to M3.4.
· Switzerland/CERN Active; magnitudes to M4.0.
· Fiji region Active; magnitudes to M5.2.
· New Zealand region Active; magnitudes to M6.0.
· Papua New Guinea region Active; magnitudes to M5.8.
· Philippines Active; magnitudes to M4.5.
· Taiwan region Quiet.
· Indonesia region Active; magnitudes to M5.5.
· Japan region Active; magnitudes to M4.8.
WATCH AREAS: (3-5 days) Forecasted Magnitude Range Actual
USA (blue font represents new forecast areas and/or updated magnitudes)
Pacific Northwest (extended time frame) M8.4-9.1 ------
Western Aleutian Islands M5.0-5.4 M5.0
Western Alaska Peninsula M5.7-6.7
NW of Vancouver Island, Canada M5.7-6.2
Off the coast of northern California M5.7-6.4 M5.8
San Francisco Bay south to Los Angeles M4.7-5.4 M4.0
Mount St. Helens M2.9-3.5 <M2.5
Yellowstone region M4.4-5.4 M4.7
Colorado M4.1-5.1 M3.3
Texas M4.0-4.7 M3.0
Northern Oklahoma/Kansas border region M4.5-5.5 M2.9
New Madrid, MO seismic zone M2.7-3.7
Caribbean: Haiti/Puerto Rico -Virgin Islands (ext.) M6.4-7.4 -------
International
Southern Mexico M4.3-4.8 M4.4
Galapagos to Ecuador region M5.6-6.7 M5.7
Peru M5.6-6.0 M5.5
Northern Chile M5.0-6.0 M4.1
Central Chile - coastal M6.4-7.4 M5.5
New Zealand region (on-going) M5.0-6.0 M6.0
Solomon Islands to Vanuatu/New Caledonia M6.7-7.7 M5.3
Papua New Guinea M5.2-5.7 M5.8
West of East Timor M5.1-5.4 M5.3
NW tip of Sumatra, Indonesia M5.0-5.9
Taiwan to Okinawa M5.1-5.6 M4.4
Japan (off-coast) M5.0-5.3 M5.1
Kuril Islands M5.0-5.4 M4.9
Nepal/India/China border region M5.0-5.4
Iran M6.4-7.4 M4.6
Turkey M5.0-5.4 M3.2
Italy M3.7-4.3 M4.0
Gibraltar M3.6-4.0 M3.8
South Sandwich Islands M5.0-5.6 M4.8
SEISMIC FORECASTING PRINCIPLES:
If you want to follow earthquakes around the world, as they happen, bookmark this link and check back often for updated information:
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/?view=1
If you need to check for tsunamis occurring as the result of large quakes (M7.5+), then check the following links when a large earthquake strikes:
Don’t ever “wait” for official evacuation orders if you are in a coastal area during a major earthquake. Get to high ground immediately! By the time you get an official warning – it may be too late!
PREP TIPS:
Here in the rural Midwest, during winter months, smart drivers always carry a winter kit in their vehicles. This is so, in the event that we get “caught out” in sub-zero temps or find ourselves stranded on a road in white-out conditions (blizzard), we can survive for a few days until we can walk out or get help. I have known many people that survived for many days in desperate conditions because they were wise enough to carry such things. I have personally saved lives in emergency situations because I had in my vehicle the necessary tools or items to rescue people, and had the knowledge and willingness to do it. In earthquake prone areas, such a “kit” as is required for your climate should be in every vehicle you drive on a regular basis.
A medium-sized backpack is probably the best container, since you may have to “hoof it” to get to a place of safety, and a backpack makes it easy to carry items and still keep your hands free to carry other items, help you hang onto or climb out of difficult situations, or assist others.
Some general/universal items that should be in most emergency kits include:
· Flashlight (with fresh batteries)
· Multi-tool or multi-blade Swiss Army knife
· Detailed Area Map (not Google Maps or GPS, since your device may go dead)
· 2 water bottles (or canteen) with fresh water
· Small water filter and/or chemical water purification tablets
· Small first-aid kit with Ace bandage wrap
· Any prescription meds you may need on a frequent basis
· Jacket & leather gloves (you may need to remove hazardous debris)
· Protein bars or trail mix
· Firestarter and/or 2 Bic lighters
· Rope or paracord (50-100 ft. minimum)
· Folding saw
· Small writing pad & pen (to leave messages or make notes)
· Quart & gallon size Ziplock heavy duty freezer bags (3 each, rolled together)
· 2-3 large contractor plastic bags (rolled up)
· Stainless steel cup, mug, or thermos
· One roll of toilet paper (inside a sealed Ziplock bag)
There are many other items you could add to this list, but they must all fit inside the pack together or be carried on your person. Don’t bring the kitchen sink – you’ll get tired out carrying too much weight! Tweak the items for your situation.
Other items to have in your car (not necessarily in your pack):
· Walking shoes/boots (if not already on your feet – no heels or flip flops)
· Sleeping bag
· Warm clothing, hat, coat, sunglasses
· Additional bottled water/food
· Roll of duct tape
· Hatchet
· Wool blanket
· Battery powered emergency weather radio
The kit is designed to get you out of an emergency situation, and provide safety and help for a few days.
You don’t want to be trying to round up these items in the dark during emergency evacuation orders, so get them together and organized now, and put them in your vehicle, so you can “grab and go” on a moment’s notice if necessary.
Have an earthquake plan, so your kids know where to go and what to do if you happen to be apart when an earthquake or other natural disaster strikes, and make sure they have access to the more important items above as well. Make sure they know how to get home or to a pre-determined safe meeting place from distant points (school or work, etc.) without depending on GPS.
If need be, your vehicle will provide good shelter and safety for many days – much better than an outdoor improvised shelter situation. If you have to make the choice to abandon your vehicle due to flooding or blocked roads, then at least it provided you with temporary safety, and a place to store your kit and supplies until you needed them.
NEWS, LINKS & RESOURCES:
California Overdue: CBS news report
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-overdue-for-a-major-earthquake/
Disclaimer: These earthquake forecasts are dependent upon accurate data published on public feeds by official reporting agencies, including USGS, PNSN, EMSC, and others. If the data is inaccurate, incomplete, or censored, then any interpretations of this data will be subject to error. I take no responsibility for these agencies’ inadvertent or purposeful obfuscation of factual data. Some of these agencies have repeatedly proven to be unreliable in their reporting and frequently deceptive, so, as the saying goes, “garbage in, garbage out” may well apply.
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Quake Updates generally are published every 3-5 days, and Breaking News reports related to significant earthquakes are sent out via e-mail as the events unfold.